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Danubio vs Rocha

Uruguay Uruguay

Segunda Division 2021
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Haller R.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda Division 2021 game between Danubio and Rocha finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Danubio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Danubio
30%
Draws
47%
Rocha
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Rocha

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Rocha carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Danubio taking it.
  • Regular Segunda Division 2021 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Danubio here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 28%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Danubio Clean Sheet 20%
Rocha Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Danubio Rocha
Matches Played 34 33
Wins 8 9
Draws 15 4
Losses 11 20
Goals Scored 1 0.94
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.42
Expected Goals (xG) 0.79 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 10, 2021 Segunda Division
Rocha vs Danubio
1:2
Jul 29, 2021 Segunda Division
Danubio vs Rocha
1:0
Apr 21, 2007 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Danubio vs Rocha
3:0
Nov 12, 2006 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Rocha vs Danubio
1:2
Feb 25, 2006 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Rocha vs Danubio
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Danubio Compare

Top Goalscorer Haller R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.61
Avg xA / game 0.4

Rocha Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Danubio 36 / 100
Rocha 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Danubio Rocha

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Danubio found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (34 games).

Defensive concern: Rocha conceded in 78% of 32 recent games.

Solid form: Danubio remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Danubio VS -
0.38 Goals Scored 0
1.38 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Danubio

(Home)
24 Sept
Danubio
1 : 1
Penarol
20 Sept
Danubio
1 : 1
Wanderers
13 Sept
Juventud
1 : 1
Danubio
05 Sept
Danubio
0 : 4
Penarol
01 Sept
Montevideo City
2 : 0
Danubio
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Rocha

(Away)
11 Aug
Potencia
2 : 0
Rocha
21 Sept
Lavalleja (Minas)
:
Rocha
23 Aug
Rocha
0 : 3
Rentistas
03 Aug
Rocha
2 : 1
Huracan Buceo
20 Jul
Rocha
2 : 0
Paso de la Arena
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Albion 22 13 5 4 31:18 44
2 Danubio 22 12 5 5 24:14 41
3 Racing Montevideo 22 10 8 4 27:16 38
4 Defensor Sp. 22 11 4 7 33:21 37
5 CA Cerro 22 10 7 5 26:20 37
6 Central Esp. 22 9 6 7 29:29 33
7 Juventud 22 8 5 9 27:27 29
8 Uruguay Montevideo FC 22 7 4 11 21:27 25
9 Atenas 22 5 9 8 20:17 24
10 Rampla Juniors 22 5 6 11 14:32 21
11 Villa Teresa 22 4 6 12 17:32 18
12 Rocha 22 4 3 15 20:36 15
Promotion - Primera Division 2022 (Apertura)
Promotion - Segunda Division 2021 (Play Offs)