Sport Picks
Darlington FC vs Merthyr Town - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
England
National League North 
Match Events
45'
45'
Pearson S.
79'
79'
Livermore A.
90'
90'
Rutledge A.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this National League North matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
30%
39%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Merthyr Town
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
31%
/ Low Confidence
- Darlington FC have won more games recently than Merthyr Town.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Darlington FC Clean Sheet 16%
Merthyr Town Clean Sheet 13%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Darlington FC | Merthyr Town |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 9 | 8 |
| Draws | 2 | 7 |
| Losses | 17 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.32 | 1.46 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.89 | 1.57 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 10, 2026 National League North
Darlington FC vs Merthyr Town
1:1
Jan 31, 2026 National League North
Darlington FC vs Merthyr Town
3:1
Nov 1, 2025 National League North
Merthyr Town vs Darlington FC
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Darlington FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Rutledge A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Merthyr Town Compare
Top Goalscorer Pearson S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Darlington FC 30 / 100
Merthyr Town 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Darlington FC Merthyr Town
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Darlington FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Merthyr Town conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.
H2H data points to 3.33 goals as a typical output.
Darlington FC found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (28 games).
Darlington FC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Darlington FC VS Merthyr Town
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
2.13 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Darlington FC
(Home) 03 Oct
Morecambe
3 : 0 Darlington FC
26 Sept
Darlington FC
1 : 1 Hebburn Town
19 Sept
Redcar Town
2 : 4 Darlington FC
12 Sept
Marine
2 : 1 Darlington FC
08 Sept
Chorley
5 : 2 Darlington FC
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Darlington FC
1 : 1 Hebburn Town
05 Sept
Darlington FC
0 : 2 King’s Lynn
29 Aug
Darlington FC
1 : 2 Macclesfield
18 Aug
Darlington FC
0 : 1 Chester
08 Aug
Darlington FC
1 : 2 Worksop
Page 1 of 3
Merthyr Town
(Away) 26 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 2 Marine
22 Sept
Truro
2 : 0 Merthyr Town
19 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Truro
12 Sept
Scarborough Athletic
0 : 0 Merthyr Town
08 Sept
Chester
0 : 1 Merthyr Town
Page 1 of 6
22 Sept
Truro
2 : 0 Merthyr Town
12 Sept
Scarborough Athletic
0 : 0 Merthyr Town
08 Sept
Chester
0 : 1 Merthyr Town
31 Aug
Buxton
2 : 1 Merthyr Town
22 Aug
South Shields
1 : 1 Merthyr Town
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22:5 | 23 |
| 2 | Macclesfield | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 13:6 | 21 |
| 3 | Oxford City | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 18:7 | 20 |
| 4 | South Shields | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15:13 | 20 |
| 5 | Hebburn Town | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 16:16 | 18 |
| 6 | Spalding United | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14:8 | 17 |
| 7 | Chester | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13:9 | 17 |
| 8 | King’s Lynn | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20:15 | 16 |
| 9 | Buxton | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 18:18 | 16 |
| 10 | Bedford | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14:14 | 16 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14:9 | 14 |
| 12 | Chorley | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16:17 | 14 |
| 13 | Merthyr Town | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12:11 | 13 |
| 14 | Scarborough Athletic | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15:12 | 12 |
| 15 | Hednesford | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17:17 | 12 |
| 16 | Marine | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 12:12 | 12 |
| 17 | Harborough | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10:12 | 12 |
| 18 | Worksop | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10:16 | 12 |
| 19 | Brackley | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11:19 | 12 |
| 20 | Southport | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13:20 | 9 |
| 21 | Telford | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8:15 | 9 |
| 22 | Darlington FC | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 12:21 | 7 |
| 23 | Spennymoor | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11:21 | 7 |
| 24 | Radcliffe | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 9:20 | 6 |
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