Sport Picks

Stadium Background

De Graafschap vs Dordrecht

Netherlands Netherlands

Eerste Divisie 2025/2026 De Vijverberg, Doetinchem
Our Tip

Match Events

4'
M'Bemba Y.
4' Event
Niemeijer R.
(Penalty)
36'
Woudenberg L.

AI Match Summary

The Eerste Divisie 2025/2026 game between De Graafschap and Dordrecht finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward De Graafschap.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
De Graafschap
6%
Draws
90%
Dordrecht
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Dordrecht

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Dordrecht haven't matched De Graafschap's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Dordrecht's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Eerste Divisie 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
De Graafschap Clean Sheet 10%
Dordrecht Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric De Graafschap Dordrecht
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 10
Draws 6 7
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.75 1.38
Goals Conceded 2.5 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.50 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 Eerste Divisie
De Graafschap vs Dordrecht
2:1
Sep 26, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Dordrecht vs De Graafschap
1:1
May 17, 2025 Eredivisie
Dordrecht vs De Graafschap
2:0
May 13, 2025 Eredivisie
De Graafschap vs Dordrecht
0:0
Jan 31, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Dordrecht vs De Graafschap
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

De Graafschap Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaninda N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Dordrecht Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

De Graafschap 10 / 100
Dordrecht 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
De Graafschap Dordrecht

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DOR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:5
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: De Graafschap scored in 90% of their last 29 outings.

Dordrecht let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: De Graafschap stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

De Graafschap VS Dordrecht
1.75 Goals Scored 1.38
2.5 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

De Graafschap

(Home)
17 Jul
De Graafschap
3 : 6
Telstar
12 Jul
De Graafschap
1 : 2
AEK
03 Jul
Heerenveen
7 : 2
De Graafschap
27 Jun
Utrecht
1 : 2
De Graafschap
09 May
De Graafschap
2 : 2
Almere City
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Dordrecht

(Away)
18 Jul
Dordrecht
5 : 0
Lusail
14 Jul
Dordrecht
4 : 1
Dortmund II
11 Jul
Dordrecht
0 : 2
Excelsior
04 Jul
Dordrecht
0 : 6
Feyenoord
27 Jun
Dordrecht
3 : 0
Schalke II
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Den Haag38292790:3789
2Cambuur38239675:4878
3Willem II382081059:4268
4De Graafschap381891174:5863
5Almere City381841678:6358
6Waalwijk3816101271:5958
7Jong PSV381751666:6456
8Roda3814131159:5455
9Den Bosch381491565:6951
10Dordrecht3812111548:5647
11Eindhoven FC381451951:6947
12Jong Utrecht3812101658:6246
13Venlo381361950:5845
14FC Emmen381291758:7245
15Vitesse3815111264:5544
16TOP Oss3811111654:6444
17Jong AZ Alkmaar381242261:7640
18Helmond Sport381091942:6239
19Maastricht389111841:7338
20Jong Ajax38982150:7335
Promotion - Eredivisie (Main)
Promotion - Eredivisie 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Eredivisie 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)