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De Graafschap vs Excelsior - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
de Regt G.
17' Event
Garden D.
45' Event
de Regt G.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between De Graafschap and Excelsior finished 1-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Excelsior.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
De Graafschap
30%
Draws
31%
Excelsior
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: De Graafschap

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Excelsior come out ahead of De Graafschap on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Excelsior's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 89%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 89%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81.4%
De Graafschap Clean Sheet 10%
Excelsior Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric De Graafschap Excelsior
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 10 12
Draws 6 8
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 1.79 2.04
Goals Conceded 2.34 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 2.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Club Friendly
De Graafschap vs Excelsior
1:5
Mar 7, 2025 Eerste Divisie
De Graafschap vs Excelsior
2:1
Aug 16, 2024 Eerste Divisie
Excelsior vs De Graafschap
3:1
Jan 14, 2022 Eerste Divisie
Excelsior vs De Graafschap
0:0
Sep 17, 2021 Eerste Divisie
De Graafschap vs Excelsior
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

De Graafschap Compare

Top Goalscorer Smits M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Excelsior Compare

Top Goalscorer de Regt G.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Garden D.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.55
Avg xA / game 1.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

De Graafschap 26 / 100
Excelsior 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
De Graafschap Excelsior

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Excelsior Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

De Graafschap found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (29 games).

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Defensive concern: Excelsior conceded in 79% of 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: De Graafschap stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

De Graafschap VS Excelsior
1.13 Goals Scored 2.5
3.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 100%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

De Graafschap

(Home)
09 Oct
De Graafschap
2 : 1
Jong Utrecht
03 Oct
Eindhoven FC
2 : 2
De Graafschap
27 Sept
De Graafschap
1 : 0
Den Bosch
20 Sept
De Graafschap
1 : 2
NAC Breda
11 Sept
FC Emmen
1 : 2
De Graafschap
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Excelsior

(Away)
19 Sept
Ajax
2 : 2
Excelsior
13 Sept
Excelsior
1 : 2
Utrecht
08 Sept
Nijmegen
2 : 2
Excelsior
05 Sept
Willem II
0 : 3
Excelsior
29 Aug
Excelsior
2 : 1
Sparta Rotterdam
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