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De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Netherlands Netherlands

Eerste Divisie De Vijverberg, Doetinchem
Fri, Oct 9, 2026
VS
06:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

De Graafschap host Jong Utrecht in the Eerste Divisie. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Jong Utrecht have shipped 1.97 goals a game lately, while De Graafschap have conceded 2.27 and scored 1.87. Past meetings favor De Graafschap slightly — 2-0-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Feb 20, 2026, ending 1:0. Model xG sits at 1.69 vs 2.44, favoring De Graafschap. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
De Graafschap
20%
Draws
40%
Jong Utrecht
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Jong Utrecht haven't matched De Graafschap's recent run of results.
  • Jong Utrecht are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 84%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 84%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
De Graafschap Clean Sheet 10%
Jong Utrecht Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric De Graafschap Jong Utrecht
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 11 7
Draws 6 7
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 1.87 1.59
Goals Conceded 2.27 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 2.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 20, 2026 Eerste Divisie
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht
1:0
Dec 8, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap
2:3
Jan 20, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap
1:1
Aug 23, 2024 Eerste Divisie
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht
2:2
May 3, 2024 Eerste Divisie
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

De Graafschap 18 / 100
Jong Utrecht 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
De Graafschap Jong Utrecht

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jong Utrecht Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

De Graafschap found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (30 games).

Jong Utrecht let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Solid form: De Graafschap remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

De Graafschap VS Jong Utrecht
1.13 Goals Scored 1.75
3.13 Goals Conceded 2.25
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

De Graafschap

(Home)
03 Oct
Eindhoven FC
2 : 2
De Graafschap
27 Sept
De Graafschap
1 : 0
Den Bosch
20 Sept
De Graafschap
1 : 2
NAC Breda
11 Sept
FC Emmen
1 : 2
De Graafschap
04 Sept
Heracles
5 : 0
De Graafschap
Page 1 of 6

Jong Utrecht

(Away)
18 Sept
Jong Utrecht
1 : 3
Venlo
14 Sept
Jong Utrecht
6 : 1
Jong Ajax
11 Sept
NAC Breda
2 : 3
Jong Utrecht
07 Sept
Jong Utrecht
0 : 0
Eindhoven FC
31 Aug
Jong AZ Alkmaar
2 : 1
Jong Utrecht
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Heracles 9 7 1 1 28:12 22
2 Almere City 9 6 1 2 19:7 19
3 FC Emmen 9 5 1 3 19:18 16
4 Maastricht 9 5 1 3 13:19 16
5 Venlo 8 5 0 3 21:14 15
6 Roda 8 4 3 1 9:5 15
7 Waalwijk 9 3 5 1 19:12 14
8 Vitesse 9 4 2 3 15:13 14
9 NAC Breda 9 4 2 3 19:19 14
10 Jong AZ Alkmaar 9 4 1 4 22:17 13
11 FC Volendam 9 4 0 5 20:17 12
12 Jong PSV 9 3 3 3 14:16 12
13 Eindhoven FC 9 3 2 4 15:19 11
14 Helmond Sport 9 2 3 4 15:16 9
15 TOP Oss 9 3 0 6 12:14 9
16 Den Bosch 9 2 2 5 13:18 8
17 Jong Ajax 9 2 2 5 13:22 8
18 Dordrecht 9 2 2 5 13:24 8
19 De Graafschap 9 2 2 5 11:22 8
20 Jong Utrecht 9 2 1 6 15:21 7
Promotion - Eredivisie 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)