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De Graafschap vs TOP Oss - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Netherlands Netherlands

Eerste Divisie De Vijverberg, Doetinchem
Sat, Nov 14, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

De Graafschap host TOP Oss in the Eerste Divisie. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. TOP Oss have shipped 1.93 goals a game lately, while De Graafschap have conceded 2.25 and scored 1.71. Head-to-head, De Graafschap have won 4 to TOP Oss's 0, with 1 draws. They last met on Dec 20, 2025, ending 2:3. The numbers (1.38 xG vs 1.69) point toward De Graafschap. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
De Graafschap
20%
Draws
40%
TOP Oss
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • De Graafschap haven't matched TOP Oss's recent run of results.
  • De Graafschap are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Eerste Divisie form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and De Graafschap have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81.4%
De Graafschap Clean Sheet 13%
TOP Oss Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric De Graafschap TOP Oss
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 9 11
Draws 6 3
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 1.71 1.72
Goals Conceded 2.25 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 20, 2025 Eerste Divisie
TOP Oss vs De Graafschap
2:3
Oct 18, 2025 Eerste Divisie
De Graafschap vs TOP Oss
1:1
Mar 16, 2025 Eerste Divisie
TOP Oss vs De Graafschap
0:2
Nov 22, 2024 Eerste Divisie
De Graafschap vs TOP Oss
4:0
Oct 29, 2024 KNVB Beker
De Graafschap vs TOP Oss
4:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

De Graafschap 40 / 100
TOP Oss 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
De Graafschap TOP Oss

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

De Graafschap scored in 89% of their last 28 games.

TOP Oss's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Recent resilience: De Graafschap stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

De Graafschap VS TOP Oss
1.25 Goals Scored 2.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

De Graafschap

(Home)
30 Oct
FC Volendam
1 : 2
De Graafschap
27 Oct
Roda
1 : 0
De Graafschap
23 Oct
De Graafschap
1 : 1
Waalwijk
19 Oct
Jong Ajax
2 : 1
De Graafschap
09 Oct
De Graafschap
2 : 1
Jong Utrecht
Page 1 of 6

TOP Oss

(Away)
02 Nov
Heracles
2 : 0
TOP Oss
28 Oct
Zwolle
1 : 2
TOP Oss
23 Oct
TOP Oss
3 : 3
Jong Ajax
16 Oct
Den Bosch
2 : 1
TOP Oss
09 Oct
TOP Oss
3 : 1
Helmond Sport
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Heracles 13 10 2 1 39:14 32
2 Venlo 13 9 1 3 36:21 28
3 Almere City 13 8 1 4 27:13 25
4 Roda 13 7 4 2 17:12 25
5 FC Emmen 13 8 1 4 26:24 25
6 NAC Breda 13 7 3 3 25:20 24
7 FC Volendam 13 6 1 6 30:22 19
8 Den Bosch 13 5 3 5 23:21 18
9 Vitesse 13 5 3 5 17:18 18
10 Jong AZ Alkmaar 13 5 2 6 32:28 17
11 Maastricht 13 5 2 6 17:29 17
12 Waalwijk 13 3 7 3 22:19 16
13 Jong PSV 13 4 4 5 17:21 16
14 De Graafschap 13 4 3 6 17:27 15
15 TOP Oss 13 4 1 8 19:22 13
16 Jong Ajax 13 3 4 6 19:30 13
17 Helmond Sport 13 3 3 7 23:28 12
18 Eindhoven FC 13 3 2 8 18:28 11
19 Dordrecht 13 3 2 8 18:34 11
20 Jong Utrecht 13 3 1 9 22:33 10
Promotion - Eredivisie 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)