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Defensor La Bocana vs Comerciantes FC

Peru Peru

Copa Peru 2022 Estadio Municipal de Bernal, Bernal
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Zambrano J.
(Penalty)
57' Event
Cenepo G.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-2, with Comerciantes FC advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Defensor La Bocana
22%
Draws
60%
Comerciantes FC
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Comerciantes FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Comerciantes FC carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Comerciantes FC a 60% chance of winning this.
  • Comerciantes FC arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Comerciantes FC, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Defensor La Bocana Clean Sheet 17%
Comerciantes FC Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Defensor La Bocana Comerciantes FC
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 10 13
Draws 3 14
Losses 17 6
Goals Scored 0 1.75
Goals Conceded 0 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 4, 2022 Copa Peru
Defensor La Bocana vs Comerciantes FC
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Defensor La Bocana Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Comerciantes FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Cenepo G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Defensor La Bocana 20 / 100
Comerciantes FC 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Defensor La Bocana Comerciantes FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick COM Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensor La Bocana's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Comerciantes FC has conceded goals in 58% of their last 33 outings.

Defensor La Bocana went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Comerciantes FC
0 Goals Scored 1.75
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Defensor La Bocana

(Home)
04 Dec
Defensor La Bocana
0 : 2
Comerciantes FC
30 Nov
Defensor La Bocana
0 : 3
Deportivo Garcilaso
27 Nov
Defensor La Bocana
2 : 1
Atl. Bruces
18 Nov
Los Caimanes
3 : 1
Defensor La Bocana
12 Nov
Defensor La Bocana
6 : 1
Sport Victoria
Page 1 of 6

Comerciantes FC

(Away)
24 Jul
Comerciantes FC
1 : 0
Alianza Huanuco
18 Jul
Sport Huancayo 2
1 : 1
Comerciantes FC
11 Jul
Sport Boys
1 : 0
Comerciantes FC
27 Jun
Comerciantes FC
0 : 0
Estudiantil CNI
20 Jun
Union Comercio
0 : 1
Comerciantes FC
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Deportivo Garcilaso32108:17
2Comerciantes FC32106:17
3Defensor La Bocana31022:63
4Atl. Bruces30033:110
Promotion - Liga 1 2023 (Apertura)
Promotion - Liga 2 2023 (Main)