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Defensor Sp. vs Boston River

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Luis Franzini
Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Sub
Mancebo M. In: Aguirre A.
Out: Mancebo M.
25'
Wunsch N.
42'
Amaro M.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Defensor Sp.
22%
Draws
18%
Boston River
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Defensor Sp.

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Boston River have won more games recently than Defensor Sp..
  • Win probability leans Defensor Sp.'s way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Defensor Sp. Clean Sheet 68%
Boston River Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Defensor Sp. Boston River
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 8 10
Draws 11 5
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 0.63 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.38 2
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 7, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Defensor Sp. vs Boston River
1:1
Apr 11, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Defensor Sp. vs Boston River
2:0
Aug 2, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Boston River vs Defensor Sp.
4:0
Feb 1, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Defensor Sp. vs Boston River
2:0
Nov 22, 2024 Copa Uruguay
Boston River vs Defensor Sp.
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Defensor Sp. Compare

Top Goalscorer Machado A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Boston River Compare

Top Goalscorer Munoa F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Defensor Sp. 68 / 100
Boston River 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Defensor Sp. Boston River

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DEF Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Boston River has conceded goals in 84% of their last 31 outings.

Defensor Sp. scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Defensor Sp. remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Defensor Sp. VS Boston River
0.63 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Penarol53116:310
2Cerro Largo52216:28
3Central Esp.52214:38
4Racing Montevideo51403:27
5CA Cerro52034:86
6Boston River51225:65
7Liverpool M.51223:45
8Defensor Sp.50323:63
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Wanderers633010:412
2Maldonado532012:511
3Club Nacional63126:710
4Montevideo City530210:99
5Juventud62138:117
6Albion61234:65
7Danubio50323:63
8Progreso51044:93