Sport Picks
Defensor Sp. vs Liverpool M.
Uruguay
Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo 
Match Events
9'
9'
Bentancourt R.
35'
35'
Sub
Cayetano A. In: Milano S.
Out: Cayetano A.
40'
40'
Garayalde N.
AI Match Summary
The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between Defensor Sp. and Liverpool M. finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Liverpool M..
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
19%
35%
46%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Liverpool M.
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
46%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Liverpool M. come out ahead of Defensor Sp. on wins alone.
- 46% — that's where the model lands on Liverpool M. taking it.
- Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Defensor Sp. Clean Sheet 12%
Liverpool M. Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Defensor Sp. | Liverpool M. |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 5 | 11 |
| Draws | 12 | 10 |
| Losses | 12 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 0.69 | 1.24 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.1 | 0.83 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.63 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 16, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Defensor Sp. vs Liverpool M.
0:4
Jul 25, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Defensor Sp. vs Liverpool M.
1:2
Feb 14, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Liverpool M. vs Defensor Sp.
1:2
Aug 30, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Liverpool M. vs Defensor Sp.
2:0
Jun 14, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Defensor Sp. vs Liverpool M.
4:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Defensor Sp. Compare
Top Goalscorer De los Santos G.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32
Liverpool M. Compare
Top Goalscorer Bentancourt R.
1 Goals Assists Leader Garayalde N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Defensor Sp. 14 / 100
Liverpool M. 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Defensor Sp. Liverpool M.
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Liverpool M. Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.
Solid form: Defensor Sp. remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Attacking prowess: Defensor Sp. scored in 59% of their last 29 outings.
Defensive concern: Liverpool M. conceded in 48% of 29 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Defensor Sp. VS Liverpool M.
0.75 Goals Scored 1.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Defensor Sp.
(Home) 09 Sept
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
06 Sept
Central Esp.
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
29 Aug
Defensor Sp.
1 : 3 Montevideo City
25 Aug
Defensor Sp.
0 : 0 Rentistas
22 Aug
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
Page 1 of 6
29 Aug
Defensor Sp.
1 : 3 Montevideo City
25 Aug
Defensor Sp.
0 : 0 Rentistas
16 Aug
Defensor Sp.
0 : 4 Liverpool M.
09 Aug
Defensor Sp.
0 : 1 Wanderers
03 Aug
Defensor Sp.
2 : 1 CA Cerro
Page 1 of 3
Liverpool M.
(Away) 06 Sept
Liverpool M.
1 : 0 Boston River
02 Sept
Liverpool M.
0 : 1 Boston River
30 Aug
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Liverpool M.
27 Aug
Fenix
0 : 2 Liverpool M.
21 Aug
Liverpool M.
4 : 0 CA Cerro
Page 1 of 6
30 Aug
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Liverpool M.
27 Aug
Fenix
0 : 2 Liverpool M.
16 Aug
Defensor Sp.
0 : 4 Liverpool M.
02 Aug
Central Esp.
0 : 0 Liverpool M.
25 Jul
Defensor Sp.
1 : 2 Liverpool M.
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12:3 | 16 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4:3 | 10 |
| 4 | Liverpool M. | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 5 | Central Esp. | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4:4 | 9 |
| 6 | CA Cerro | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:10 | 9 |
| 7 | Defensor Sp. | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:9 | 6 |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:10 | 5 |
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12:4 | 15 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8:8 | 13 |
| 3 | Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12:6 | 12 |
| 4 | Montevideo City | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11:11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:8 | 6 |
| 7 | Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6:11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5:9 | 4 |
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)
