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Defensor Sp. vs Maldonado

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Gonzalez M.
21'
Tabo C.
38'
Larrazabal G.

AI Match Summary

Defensor Sp. in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Defensor Sp..

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Defensor Sp.
20%
Draws
48%
Maldonado
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Maldonado

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Maldonado lately — more wins on the board than Defensor Sp..
  • Model gives Maldonado a 48% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Defensor Sp. Clean Sheet 15%
Maldonado Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Defensor Sp. Maldonado
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 6 16
Draws 12 7
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 0.79 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.14 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 0.76 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Defensor Sp. vs Maldonado
1:0
Mar 15, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Defensor Sp.
1:0
Sep 29, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Defensor Sp. vs Maldonado
3:1
Jun 8, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Defensor Sp.
0:2
Mar 24, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Defensor Sp.
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Defensor Sp. Compare

Top Goalscorer Montenegro B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Maldonado Compare

Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Defensor Sp. 19 / 100
Maldonado 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Defensor Sp. Maldonado

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maldonado Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensor Sp. found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Solid form: Defensor Sp. remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Maldonado's defensive record shows goals conceded in 55% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Defensor Sp. VS Maldonado
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Defensor Sp.

(Home)
27 Sept
Defensor Sp.
1 : 0
Danubio
20 Sept
Club Nacional
3 : 2
Defensor Sp.
13 Sept
Defensor Sp.
1 : 0
Maldonado
09 Sept
Cerro Largo
1 : 1
Defensor Sp.
06 Sept
Central Esp.
1 : 1
Defensor Sp.
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Maldonado

(Away)
27 Sept
Montevideo City
0 : 2
Maldonado
23 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2
Maldonado
19 Sept
Maldonado
2 : 0
Cerro Largo
13 Sept
Defensor Sp.
1 : 0
Maldonado
09 Sept
Maldonado
4 : 1
Wanderers
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Montevideo City 7 6 0 1 18:7 18
2 Liverpool M. 8 5 2 1 14:5 17
3 Penarol 7 5 1 1 13:5 15
4 Maldonado 8 4 2 2 10:5 14
5 Club Nacional 8 4 2 2 11:9 14
6 CA Cerro 8 4 2 2 9:9 14
7 Juventud 8 3 4 1 10:6 13
8 Racing Montevideo 8 3 3 2 9:7 12
9 Progreso 8 4 0 4 7:9 12
10 Wanderers 7 2 3 2 8:10 9
11 Boston River 8 2 2 4 10:12 8
12 Defensor Sp. 8 2 2 4 7:13 8
13 Cerro Largo 8 0 5 3 5:10 5
14 Central Esp. 8 1 2 5 5:13 5
15 Danubio 8 0 4 4 2:9 4
16 Albion 7 0 0 7 5:14 0
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)