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Defensores de Belgrano vs Ferro - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Argentina Argentina

Primera Nacional Estadio Juan Pasquale, Belgrano
Defensores de Belgrano Logo

Defensores de Belgrano

0 - 1
FT
Ferro Logo

Ferro

Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Dening E.
46'
Sub
Parisi L. In: Marra L.
Out: Parisi L.
46'
Sub
Benitez A. In: Ciccolini L.
Out: Benitez A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Primera Nacional game between Defensores de Belgrano and Ferro finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ferro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Defensores de Belgrano
35%
Draws
32%
Ferro
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ferro come out ahead of Defensores de Belgrano on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Primera Nacional form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Defensores de Belgrano Clean Sheet 68%
Ferro Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Defensores de Belgrano Ferro
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 6 17
Draws 11 5
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 0.71 1.11
Goals Conceded 0.96 0.82
Expected Goals (xG) 0.76 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 Primera Nacional
Defensores de Belgrano vs Ferro
0:1
May 11, 2026 Primera Nacional
Ferro vs Defensores de Belgrano
2:1
Apr 26, 2022 Primera Nacional
Defensores de Belgrano vs Ferro
2:2
Oct 31, 2021 Primera Nacional
Defensores de Belgrano vs Ferro
0:2
Jul 4, 2021 Primera Nacional
Ferro vs Defensores de Belgrano
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Defensores de Belgrano Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Ferro Compare

Top Goalscorer Dening E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Defensores de Belgrano 41 / 100
Ferro 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Defensores de Belgrano Ferro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Defensores de Belgrano Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Defensores de Belgrano has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Attacking prowess: Defensores de Belgrano scored in 50% of their last 28 outings.

Defensive concern: Ferro conceded in 50% of 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Defensores de Belgrano VS Ferro
0.88 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 38%
25% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Defensores de Belgrano

(Home)
04 Oct
Chaco For Ever
2 : 2
Defensores de Belgrano
27 Sept
Defensores de Belgrano
0 : 1
Ferro
20 Sept
Central Norte
0 : 1
Defensores de Belgrano
14 Sept
Defensores de Belgrano
2 : 1
Deportivo Madryn
09 Sept
Defensores de Belgrano
1 : 1
Los Andes
Page 1 of 6

Ferro

(Away)
02 Oct
Ferro
0 : 2
Deportivo Madryn
27 Sept
Defensores de Belgrano
0 : 1
Ferro
19 Sept
Ferro
1 : 0
Ciudad Bolivar
13 Sept
Almirante Brown
0 : 0
Ferro
04 Sept
Ferro
0 : 0
CA Mitre
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ferro 33 18 8 7 37:28 62
2 Deportivo Moron 33 17 7 9 51:34 58
3 Godoy Cruz 32 16 8 8 42:29 56
4 Deportivo Madryn 33 14 11 8 47:30 53
5 Colon Santa Fe 33 14 11 8 39:25 53
6 CA Estudiantes 33 13 9 11 31:27 48
7 Ciudad Bolivar 33 12 12 9 28:28 48
8 Almirante Brown 33 12 11 10 26:22 47
9 Los Andes 32 9 13 10 25:23 40
10 Chaco For Ever 33 10 10 13 32:34 40
11 Defensores de Belgrano 33 8 13 12 25:32 37
12 San Telmo 33 9 10 14 28:37 37
13 Racing Cordoba 32 9 10 13 29:39 37
14 CA Mitre 33 7 15 11 29:39 36
15 Central Norte 33 6 16 11 21:30 34
16 All Boys 32 6 15 11 18:28 33
17 Acassuso 33 8 8 17 25:35 32
18 San Miguel 33 6 14 13 26:39 32
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tristan Suarez 33 15 14 4 32:15 59
2 Temperley 33 16 11 6 40:27 59
3 Atletico Atlanta 33 18 4 11 39:30 58
4 Gimnasia Jujuy 33 15 10 8 50:42 55
5 Midland 33 14 9 10 38:26 51
6 Gimnasia y Tiro 33 13 10 10 34:30 49
7 Deportivo Maipu 33 13 9 11 40:32 48
8 Colegiales 33 13 8 12 32:31 47
9 San Martin S.J. 33 12 10 11 35:33 46
10 San Martin T. 33 10 13 10 35:33 43
11 Atl. Rafaela 33 11 9 13 27:34 42
12 Almagro 33 11 8 14 30:39 41
13 Agropecuario 33 10 10 13 27:35 40
14 Quilmes 33 10 9 14 30:28 39
15 Patronato 33 7 16 10 29:32 37
16 Nueva Chicago 33 9 9 15 24:32 36
17 Chacarita Juniors 33 9 6 18 25:35 33
18 Club Atletico Guemes 33 5 8 20 23:56 23
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)