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Defensores de Vilelas vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Argentina Argentina

Torneo Federal
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
05:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Torneo Federal. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Defensores de Vilelas at 1.46 goals for, 1.54 against; Gimnasia Chivilcoy at 0.86 for, 0.69 against. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. Model xG sits at 1.13 vs 1.19, favoring Gimnasia Chivilcoy. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Defensores de Vilelas
30%
Draws
41%
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Gimnasia Chivilcoy

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Gimnasia Chivilcoy come out ahead of Defensores de Vilelas on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Gimnasia Chivilcoy arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • These two have never met before — a fresh matchup with no historical pattern to lean on.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.4%
Defensores de Vilelas Clean Sheet 20%
Gimnasia Chivilcoy Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Defensores de Vilelas Gimnasia Chivilcoy
Matches Played 24 29
Wins 9 11
Draws 4 9
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1.46 0.86
Goals Conceded 1.54 0.69
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Defensores de Vilelas 32 / 100
Gimnasia Chivilcoy 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Defensores de Vilelas Gimnasia Chivilcoy

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensores de Vilelas scored in 67% of their last 24 games.

Defensores de Vilelas went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Gimnasia Chivilcoy let in goals in 41% of their last 29 matches.

Gimnasia Chivilcoy lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Defensores de Vilelas VS Gimnasia Chivilcoy
1.75 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Defensores de Vilelas

(Home)
19 Sept
Boca Unidos
3 : 3
Defensores de Vilelas
13 Sept
Defensores de Vilelas
2 : 0
Independiente Chivilcoy
07 Sept
Atletico Escobar
2 : 1
Defensores de Vilelas
23 Aug
Defensores de Vilelas
0 : 0
El Linqueno
16 Aug
Gimnasia E.R.
2 : 0
Defensores de Vilelas
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Gimnasia Chivilcoy

(Away)
04 Oct
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
1 : 2
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
27 Sept
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
2 : 1
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
20 Sept
Douglas Haig
0 : 0
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
11 Sept
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
2 : 0
Sol de America
06 Sept
Bartolome Mitre
0 : 1
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Bartolome Mitre -
Boca Unidos -
Gimnasia Chivilcoy -
Defensores de Vilelas -
Sarmiento de La Banda -
Sportivo Belgrano -
TBD -
TBD -
Huracan Las Heras -
Juventud Antoniana -
Defensores Belgrano Villa Ramallo -
Sportivo Las Parejas -
Argentino MM -
San Martin Mendoza -
Douglas Haig -
El Linqueno -
Kimberley -
Deportivo Rincon -
Sol de America -
Juventud U.U. -
Villa Mitre -
Costa Brava -
Biblioteca Atenas -
Fundacion Amigos -
9 de Julio Rafaela -
Gimnasia E.R. -
1/8-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -