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Defensores W vs FBC Melgar W

Peru Peru

Liga Women 2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Defensores W play FBC Melgar W in the Liga Women 2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Defensores W averaged 1.27 goals scored and 2.73 conceded. FBC Melgar W averaged 1.42 goals scored and 1.84 conceded. In past meetings, Defensores W won 1, FBC Melgar W won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 26, 2026 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Defensores W and 2.25 for FBC Melgar W. This points to a FBC Melgar W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Defensores W
19%
Draws
50%
FBC Melgar W
Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: FBC Melgar W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence
  • Defensores W picked up more points recently compared to FBC Melgar W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 2.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 70%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 70%
Over 3.5 Goals 42%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%
Defensores W Clean Sheet 10%
FBC Melgar W Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 79%
Second Half Goal 84%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Defensores W FBC Melgar W
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 7 12
Draws 5 6
Losses 18 13
Goals Scored 1.27 1.42
Goals Conceded 2.73 1.84
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.75 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Liga Women
Defensores W vs FBC Melgar W
3:2
Aug 9, 2025 Liga Women
FBC Melgar W vs Defensores W
2:1
Jun 7, 2025 Liga Women
FBC Melgar W vs Defensores W
5:1
Apr 6, 2025 Liga Women
Defensores W vs FBC Melgar W
1:1
Aug 3, 2024 Liga Women
FBC Melgar W vs Defensores W
6:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Defensores W 30 / 100
FBC Melgar W 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Defensores W FBC Melgar W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: FBC Melgar W or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +34.8%
4.35
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.2%
1.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Defensores W attacking → ← attacking FBC Melgar W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensores W scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

FBC Melgar W let in goals in 74% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 4.40 goals.

Defensores W went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

FBC Melgar W lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

26 Points in last 5 42
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
2.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Universitario de Deportes W1091055:428
2Atl. Andahuaylas W1081114:825
3Sporting Cristal W1070330:921
4A. Lima W1062226:720
5Yanapuma W1051415:2116
6FBC Melgar W1042415:1414
7Flamengo FBC W1032516:2111
8Defensores W1021711:297
9UNSAAC W101367:256
10Killas W1012714:265
11Carlos Mannucci W101184:434
12Biavo W00000:00