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Stadium Background

Delfin vs Emelec

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Jocay
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Delfin play Emelec in the Liga Pro. It looks like a close match. Recently, Delfin averaged 0.59 goals scored and 1.21 conceded. Emelec averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. In past meetings, Delfin won 0, Emelec won 2, and they drew 3. Their last match on Jul 5, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.63 for Delfin and 1.06 for Emelec. This points to a Emelec double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Delfin
32%
Draws
39%
Emelec
Draw rate projection: 32% Favored: Emelec

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Delfin picked up more points recently compared to Emelec.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.63 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 53%
Over 2.5 Goals 23%
Over 3.5 Goals 14%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27%
Delfin Clean Sheet 22%
Emelec Clean Sheet 21%
First Half Goal 48%
Second Half Goal 50%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Delfin Emelec
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 11
Draws 6 6
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 0.59 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2026 Liga Pro
Delfin vs Emelec
1:1
Mar 1, 2026 Liga Pro
Emelec vs Delfin
1:1
Nov 30, 2025 Liga Pro
Delfin vs Emelec
0:1
Oct 26, 2025 Liga Pro
Emelec vs Delfin
1:0
Jun 21, 2025 Liga Pro
Emelec vs Delfin
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Delfin Compare

Top Goalscorer Ushina K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Emelec Compare

Top Goalscorer Mina A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Delfin 31 / 100
Emelec 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Delfin Emelec

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Emelec or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +38%
4.76
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +35.2%
5.88
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Delfin attacking → ← attacking Emelec

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Delfin scored in 41% of their last 29 games.

Emelec let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Delfin went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Emelec lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

30 Points in last 5 39
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Independiente del Valle17131336:1840
2Barcelona SC1785420:1329
3Aucas1785420:1629
4LDU Quito1783619:1427
5Dep. Cuenca1783618:1927
6U. Catolica1875628:1826
7Tecnico U.1772819:1723
8Leones del Norte1865719:1923
9Macara1765616:1823
10Emelec1765614:1723
11Orense1764722:2422
12Mushuc Runa1756622:2321
13Guayaquil City1754814:2019
14Delfin174589:1617
15Libertad1745817:2517
16Manta1733117:2312