Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Delfin vs Independiente del Valle

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Jocay, Manta
Our Tip

Match Events

45'
Cavallaro J.
46'
Sub
Viacava J. In: Carabajal M.
Out: Viacava J.
48' Event
Lerma J.
Assist: Reasco D.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Pro game between Delfin and Independiente del Valle finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Independiente del Valle.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Delfin
15%
Draws
67%
Independiente del Valle
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Independiente del Valle

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Independiente del Valle come out ahead of Delfin on wins alone.
  • Model gives Independiente del Valle a 67% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga Pro form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Delfin Clean Sheet 10%
Independiente del Valle Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Delfin Independiente del Valle
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 9 24
Draws 6 1
Losses 13 3
Goals Scored 0.75 2.36
Goals Conceded 0.89 0.82
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 22, 2026 Liga Pro
Delfin vs Independiente del Valle
0:1
Sep 28, 2025 Liga Pro
Independiente del Valle vs Delfin
0:0
May 31, 2025 Liga Pro
Delfin vs Independiente del Valle
1:1
Aug 3, 2024 Liga Pro
Independiente del Valle vs Delfin
1:2
Mar 2, 2024 Liga Pro
Delfin vs Independiente del Valle
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Delfin Compare

Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34

Independiente del Valle Compare

Top Goalscorer Lerma J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Delfin 14 / 100
Independiente del Valle 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Delfin Independiente del Valle

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick IND Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Delfin's goal record stands at 57% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Independiente del Valle has conceded goals in 50% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Delfin has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Delfin VS Independiente del Valle
0.88 Goals Scored 2.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Delfin

(Home)
09 Aug
Delfin
1 : 1
Orense
04 Aug
LDU Quito
2 : 1
Delfin
26 Jul
Delfin
0 : 1
Leones del Norte
21 Jul
Libertad
1 : 0
Delfin
18 Jul
Delfin
2 : 1
Macara
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Independiente del Valle

(Away)
08 Aug
LDU Quito
0 : 2
Independiente del Valle
02 Aug
Independiente del Valle
1 : 0
Dep. Cuenca
30 Jul
Independiente del Valle
1 : 0
Manta
26 Jul
Orense
2 : 3
Independiente del Valle
22 Jul
Independiente del Valle
3 : 0
Tecnico U.
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente del Valle 24 20 1 3 58:22 61
2 Macara 24 12 5 7 32:24 41
3 Aucas 24 12 5 7 29:25 41
4 U. Catolica 24 11 6 7 39:21 39
5 Barcelona SC 24 9 8 7 25:20 35
6 LDU Quito 24 10 5 9 23:20 35
7 Libertad 24 9 6 9 26:27 33
8 Leones del Norte 24 8 8 8 24:25 32
9 Mushuc Runa 24 8 7 9 32:34 31
10 Dep. Cuenca 24 9 4 11 22:30 31
11 Guayaquil City 24 7 8 9 20:25 29
12 Emelec 24 7 8 9 19:28 29
13 Orense 24 7 6 11 28:36 27
14 Tecnico U. 24 8 2 14 20:32 26
15 Delfin 24 6 6 12 15:24 24
16 Manta 24 4 5 15 11:30 17
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)