Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Denbigh vs Porthmadog

Wales Wales

Cymru North
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Summers-Jones D.
(Penalty)
55' Event
Vaughan A.
69' Event
Thomas D.

AI Match Summary

Porthmadog in this Cymru North matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Porthmadog.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Denbigh
20%
Draws
51%
Porthmadog
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Porthmadog

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Denbigh have won more games recently than Porthmadog.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Cymru North form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).
  • History favors Porthmadog here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
Denbigh Clean Sheet 10%
Porthmadog Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Denbigh Porthmadog
Matches Played 33 28
Wins 12 10
Draws 3 4
Losses 18 14
Goals Scored 1.61 1.5
Goals Conceded 2.09 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 21, 2026 Cymru North
Denbigh vs Porthmadog
2:3
Sep 24, 2025 FAW Welsh Cup
Porthmadog vs Denbigh
3:2
Feb 2, 2024 Cymru North
Denbigh vs Porthmadog
3:1
Sep 30, 2023 Cymru North
Porthmadog vs Denbigh
2:1
Feb 23, 2019 Cymru Alliance
Denbigh vs Porthmadog
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Denbigh Compare

Top Goalscorer Vaughan A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Martin H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Porthmadog Compare

Top Goalscorer Thomas D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ellis O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Denbigh 30 / 100
Porthmadog 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Denbigh Porthmadog

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Porthmadog has conceded goals in 89% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Denbigh scored in 79% of their last 33 games.

Denbigh went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Denbigh VS Porthmadog
1.5 Goals Scored 1.88
2.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Denbigh

(Home)
11 Sept
Denbigh
5 : 2
Bala
05 Sept
Newtown
1 : 0
Denbigh
31 Aug
Denbigh
1 : 3
Rhyl
28 Aug
Penrhyncoch
2 : 2
Denbigh
21 Aug
Denbigh
2 : 3
Porthmadog
Page 1 of 7

Porthmadog

(Away)
12 Sept
Porthmadog
3 : 0
Ruthin Town
05 Sept
Porthmadog
1 : 2
Bala
31 Aug
Holyhead
2 : 2
Porthmadog
28 Aug
Porthmadog
1 : 3
Caersws FC
21 Aug
Denbigh
2 : 3
Porthmadog
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Brickfield Rangers 8 7 0 1 21:4 21
2 Newtown 7 6 1 0 16:1 19
3 Bala 8 6 0 2 15:10 18
4 Mold Alexandra 8 5 2 1 19:9 17
5 Bangor 1876 8 5 1 2 21:11 16
6 Porthmadog 8 4 2 2 15:11 14
7 Caersws FC 7 4 1 2 13:9 13
8 Guilsfield 8 2 4 2 13:12 10
9 Llanuwchllyn 7 3 1 3 11:17 10
10 Rhyl 7 2 3 2 14:13 9
11 Buckley 8 2 2 4 15:14 8
12 Denbigh 8 2 1 5 16:17 7
13 Holyhead 7 1 1 5 7:14 4
14 Ruthin Town 8 1 1 6 6:19 4
15 Gresford 7 0 1 6 2:20 1
16 Penrhyncoch 8 0 1 7 4:27 1
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)