Sport Picks
Denbigh vs Porthmadog - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Wales
Cymru North 
Match Events
31'
31'
Summers-Jones D.
(Penalty)
55'
55'
Vaughan A.
66'
66'
Thomas D.
AI Match Summary
Porthmadog in this Cymru North matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Porthmadog.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
20%
40%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ Low Confidence
- Denbigh average 1.5 goals a game right now, well clear of Porthmadog's 1.43.
- Denbigh are the model's pick here, at 40%.
- Regular Cymru North form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Porthmadog here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Denbigh Clean Sheet 14%
Porthmadog Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Denbigh | Porthmadog |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 28 |
| Wins | 11 | 11 |
| Draws | 3 | 5 |
| Losses | 18 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 1.43 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.13 | 1.89 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 21, 2026 Cymru North
Denbigh vs Porthmadog
2:3
Sep 24, 2025 FAW Welsh Cup
Porthmadog vs Denbigh
3:2
Feb 2, 2024 Cymru North
Denbigh vs Porthmadog
3:1
Sep 30, 2023 Cymru North
Porthmadog vs Denbigh
2:1
Feb 23, 2019 Cymru Alliance
Denbigh vs Porthmadog
0:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Denbigh Compare
Top Goalscorer Vaughan A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Martin H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Porthmadog Compare
Top Goalscorer Thomas D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Ellis O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Denbigh 39 / 100
Porthmadog 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Denbigh Porthmadog
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Denbigh Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.
Denbigh found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (32 games).
Porthmadog let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.
Denbigh went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Denbigh VS Porthmadog
1.75 Goals Scored 1.13
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Denbigh
(Home) 06 Nov
Denbigh
2 : 2 Mold Alexandra
31 Oct
Llanuwchllyn
3 : 4 Denbigh
16 Oct
Denbigh
0 : 2 Bangor 1876
10 Oct
Guilsfield
0 : 2 Denbigh
02 Oct
Denbigh
2 : 4 Holyhead
Page 1 of 7
06 Nov
Denbigh
2 : 2 Mold Alexandra
16 Oct
Denbigh
0 : 2 Bangor 1876
02 Oct
Denbigh
2 : 4 Holyhead
11 Sept
Denbigh
5 : 2 Bala
31 Aug
Denbigh
1 : 3 Rhyl
Page 1 of 3
Porthmadog
(Away) 31 Oct
Guilsfield
2 : 2 Porthmadog
24 Oct
Porthmadog
0 : 1 Brickfield Rangers
16 Oct
Connahs Q.
4 : 0 Porthmadog
10 Oct
Gresford
0 : 1 Porthmadog
03 Oct
Porthmadog
1 : 0 Bangor 1876
Page 1 of 6
31 Oct
Guilsfield
2 : 2 Porthmadog
16 Oct
Connahs Q.
4 : 0 Porthmadog
10 Oct
Gresford
0 : 1 Porthmadog
26 Sept
Newtown
0 : 1 Porthmadog
31 Aug
Holyhead
2 : 2 Porthmadog
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 28:11 | 31 |
| 2 | Newtown | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 24:5 | 30 |
| 3 | Mold Alexandra | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 32:16 | 27 |
| 4 | Porthmadog | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20:14 | 24 |
| 5 | Bala | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 27:24 | 24 |
| 6 | Caersws FC | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 28:18 | 23 |
| 7 | Bangor 1876 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 33:19 | 21 |
| 8 | Guilsfield | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 20:19 | 18 |
| 9 | Buckley | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 25:23 | 15 |
| 10 | Denbigh | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 26:28 | 14 |
| 11 | Holyhead | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17:20 | 14 |
| 12 | Llanuwchllyn | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 23:31 | 14 |
| 13 | Ruthin Town | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 12:24 | 12 |
| 14 | Rhyl | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 21:24 | 11 |
| 15 | Gresford | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7:33 | 7 |
| 16 | Penrhyncoch | 13 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6:40 | 1 |
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)
