Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Dender vs Lommel SK

Belgium Belgium

Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 Dender Football Complex, Denderleeuw
Our Tip

Match Events

57'
Sub
Lopez L. In: Vancsa Z.
Out: Lopez L.
63'
Sub
Viltard M. In: Toshevski D.
Out: Viltard M.
63'
Sub
Kvet R. In: Acquah D.
Out: Kvet R.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 0-0. Extra time or penalties follow.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Dender
15%
Draws
28%
Lommel SK
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Dender

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lommel SK lately — more wins on the board than Dender.
  • Model gives Dender a 57% chance of winning this.
  • Lommel SK arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Dender, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Dender Clean Sheet 18%
Lommel SK Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dender Lommel SK
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 7 13
Draws 4 6
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 0.89 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Dender vs Lommel SK
0:0
May 17, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Lommel SK vs Dender
3:2
Feb 3, 2024 Challenger Pro League
Lommel SK vs Dender
2:2
Sep 16, 2023 Challenger Pro League
Dender vs Lommel SK
3:1
May 6, 2023 Challenger Pro League
Dender vs Lommel SK
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dender 85 / 100
Lommel SK 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dender Lommel SK

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dender Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lommel SK has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Dender's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Dender went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Dender VS Lommel SK
0.75 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Dender

(Home)
11 Sept
Gent U23
0 : 1
Dender
04 Sept
Dender
2 : 0
RFC Seraing
29 Aug
RFC Liege
1 : 2
Dender
22 Aug
Dender
2 : 0
Beerschot VA
14 Aug
Hasselt
1 : 0
Dender
Page 1 of 6

Lommel SK

(Away)
12 Sept
Royale Union SG
5 : 0
Lommel SK
04 Sept
Lommel SK
0 : 1
Club Brugge
29 Aug
Cercle Brugge
0 : 1
Lommel SK
23 Aug
Lommel SK
4 : 0
Westerlo
16 Aug
Lommel SK
0 : 1
Charleroi
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Dender -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Beerschot VA 4
Patro Eisden 3
RFC Liege 1
Lommel SK 5
Semi-finals
Dender -
TBD -
Beerschot VA 2
Lommel SK 6
Final
Dender 2
Lommel SK 3