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Denmark vs Portugal - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League Parken Stadium, Copenhagen
Denmark Logo

Denmark

2 - 4
FT
Portugal Logo

Portugal

Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Cancelo J.
Assist: Ramos G.
23' Event
Damsgaard M.
Assist: Maehle J.
25' Event
Ramos G.
Assist: Fernandes B.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Portugal in this UEFA Nations League matchup, with the score ending 2-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Portugal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Denmark
15%
Draws
49%
Portugal
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Portugal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Portugal lately — more wins on the board than Denmark.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this UEFA Nations League fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Portugal have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Denmark Clean Sheet 15%
Portugal Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Denmark Portugal
Matches Played 32 36
Wins 15 25
Draws 8 6
Losses 9 5
Goals Scored 1.78 2.17
Goals Conceded 1.16 0.92
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 1, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Denmark vs Portugal
2:4
Mar 23, 2025 UEFA Nations League
Portugal vs Denmark
5:2
Mar 20, 2025 UEFA Nations League
Denmark vs Portugal
1:0
Oct 8, 2015 Euro
Portugal vs Denmark
1:0
Oct 14, 2014 Euro
Denmark vs Portugal
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Denmark Compare

Top Goalscorer Damsgaard M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hojlund R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Portugal Compare

Top Goalscorer Cancelo J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ramos G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Denmark 31 / 100
Portugal 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Denmark Portugal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Portugal Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Attacking prowess: Denmark scored in 78% of their last 32 outings.

Portugal's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 36 matches.

Solid form: Denmark remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Denmark VS Portugal
1.88 Goals Scored 1.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Denmark

(Home)
04 Oct
Wales
0 : 1
Denmark
01 Oct
Denmark
2 : 4
Portugal
27 Sept
Denmark
2 : 0
Wales
24 Sept
Norway
3 : 2
Denmark
07 Jun
Denmark
2 : 1
Ukraine
Page 1 of 7

Portugal

(Away)
04 Oct
Portugal
2 : 1
Norway
01 Oct
Denmark
2 : 4
Portugal
27 Sept
Norway
1 : 2
Portugal
24 Sept
Portugal
1 : 0
Wales
06 Jul
Portugal
0 : 1
Spain
Page 1 of 8

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 France 4 3 1 0 7:2 10
2 Italy 4 2 1 1 8:5 7
3 Belgium 4 2 0 2 6:5 6
4 Turkey 4 0 0 4 2:11 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Netherlands 4 2 2 0 7:5 8
2 Greece 4 2 2 0 5:3 8
3 Germany 4 1 2 1 3:2 5
4 Serbia 4 0 0 4 3:8 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spain 4 4 0 0 12:5 12
2 England 4 3 0 1 14:3 9
3 Croatia 4 1 0 3 4:14 3
4 Czech Republic 4 0 0 4 2:10 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugal 4 4 0 0 9:4 12
2 Denmark 4 2 0 2 7:7 6
3 Wales 4 1 0 3 2:5 3
4 Norway 4 1 0 3 6:8 3
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)