Sport Picks
Match Events
45'
45'
Di Guglielmo L.
56'
56'
Sub
Bruun S. In: Vangsgaard A.
Out: Bruun S.
59'
59'
Caruso A.
Assist: Giugliano M.
AI Match Summary
Italy W in this UEFA Nations League Women matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Italy W.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
35%
29%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Denmark W
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
- Denmark W have won more games recently than Italy W.
- Win probability leans Denmark W's way, sitting at 36%.
- European nights carry their own weight — this UEFA Nations League Women fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Denmark W Clean Sheet 20%
Italy W Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Denmark W | Italy W |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 15 | 11 |
| Draws | 4 | 10 |
| Losses | 11 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.8 | 1.53 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.33 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.75 | 0.76 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 18, 2026 World Cup Women
Denmark W vs Italy W
0:0
Mar 7, 2026 World Cup Women
Italy W vs Denmark W
1:1
Apr 8, 2025 UEFA Nations League Women
Denmark W vs Italy W
0:3
Feb 25, 2025 UEFA Nations League Women
Italy W vs Denmark W
1:3
Feb 16, 2022 Algarve Cup Women
Denmark W vs Italy W
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Denmark W Compare
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88
Italy W Compare
Top Goalscorer Caruso A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Di Guglielmo L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.69
Avg xA / game 0.42
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Denmark W 36 / 100
Italy W 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Denmark W Italy W
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Solid form: Denmark W remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.
Denmark W found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).
Italy W's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 30 matches.
These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.
Scoring Trends
Denmark W VS Italy W
2 Goals Scored 0.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Denmark W
(Home) 09 Jun
Serbia W
1 : 4 Denmark W
05 Jun
Denmark W
2 : 1 Sweden W
18 Apr
Denmark W
0 : 0 Italy W
14 Apr
Sweden W
1 : 2 Denmark W
07 Mar
Italy W
1 : 1 Denmark W
Page 1 of 6
05 Jun
Denmark W
2 : 1 Sweden W
18 Apr
Denmark W
0 : 0 Italy W
03 Mar
Denmark W
3 : 1 Serbia W
01 Dec
Denmark W
0 : 0 Norway W
28 Oct
Denmark W
2 : 0 Finland W
Page 1 of 4
Italy W
(Away) 09 Jun
Sweden W
2 : 2 Italy W
05 Jun
Italy W
3 : 0 Serbia W
18 Apr
Denmark W
0 : 0 Italy W
14 Apr
Serbia W
0 : 6 Italy W
07 Mar
Italy W
1 : 1 Denmark W
Page 1 of 6
09 Jun
Sweden W
2 : 2 Italy W
18 Apr
Denmark W
0 : 0 Italy W
14 Apr
Serbia W
0 : 6 Italy W
02 Dec
USA W
2 : 0 Italy W
29 Nov
USA W
3 : 0 Italy W
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany W | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 26:4 | 16 |
| 2 | Netherlands W | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 3 | Austria W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5:16 | 6 |
| 4 | Scotland W | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3:15 | 1 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League Women (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women 2027 (League B)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14:2 | 18 |
| 2 | Norway W | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4:5 | 8 |
| 3 | Iceland W | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6:9 | 4 |
| 4 | Switzerland W | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4:12 | 2 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League Women (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women 2027 (League B)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21:8 | 15 |
| 2 | England W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 16:6 | 10 |
| 3 | Belgium W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9:16 | 6 |
| 4 | Portugal W | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5:21 | 4 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League Women (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women 2027 (League B)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sweden W | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13:6 | 12 |
| 2 | Italy W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11:7 | 10 |
| 3 | Denmark W | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8:13 | 9 |
| 4 | Wales W | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4:10 | 2 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League Women (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women 2027 (League B)
