Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Dep. Cuenca vs Libertad

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar, Cuenca
Our Tip

Match Events

29'
Coronel D.
42'
Benalcazar C.
46'
Sub
Coronel D. In: Batalla H.
Out: Coronel D.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Pro game between Dep. Cuenca and Libertad finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Libertad.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Dep. Cuenca
30%
Draws
41%
Libertad
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Libertad

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Dep. Cuenca haven't matched Libertad's recent run of results.
  • Libertad are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Dep. Cuenca Clean Sheet 16%
Libertad Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dep. Cuenca Libertad
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 8 11
Draws 9 7
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 0.75 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 7, 2026 Liga Pro
Dep. Cuenca vs Libertad
0:1
May 16, 2026 Liga Pro
Libertad vs Dep. Cuenca
0:1
Mar 5, 2026 Copa Sudamericana
Dep. Cuenca vs Libertad
3:0
Jul 5, 2025 Liga Pro
Libertad vs Dep. Cuenca
2:1
Mar 8, 2025 Liga Pro
Dep. Cuenca vs Libertad
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dep. Cuenca Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Libertad Compare

Top Goalscorer Caicedo E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dep. Cuenca 28 / 100
Libertad 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dep. Cuenca Libertad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Libertad Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Libertad let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Dep. Cuenca has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Dep. Cuenca scored in 59% of their last 32 games.

Scoring Trends

Dep. Cuenca VS Libertad
0.63 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Dep. Cuenca

(Home)
20 Sept
Dep. Cuenca
1 : 1
Mushuc Runa
13 Sept
LDU Quito
1 : 1
Dep. Cuenca
07 Sept
Dep. Cuenca
0 : 1
Libertad
02 Sept
Dep. Cuenca
1 : 0
Guayaquil City
29 Aug
Tecnico U.
3 : 1
Dep. Cuenca
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Libertad

(Away)
20 Sept
Emelec
1 : 2
Libertad
13 Sept
Libertad
2 : 3
Independiente del Valle
07 Sept
Dep. Cuenca
0 : 1
Libertad
04 Sept
Libertad
1 : 1
Emelec
30 Aug
Aucas
1 : 0
Libertad
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 73:33 74
2 U. Catolica 30 14 9 7 51:27 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 41:33 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 33:28 50
5 LDU Quito 30 13 7 10 31:24 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 32:25 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 33:34 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 31:32 39
9 Guayaquil City 30 10 9 11 33:36 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 25:34 39
11 Mushuc Runa 30 9 11 10 35:38 38
12 Dep. Cuenca 30 10 6 14 25:37 36
13 Orense 30 9 6 15 36:47 33
14 Tecnico U. 30 10 2 18 28:42 32
15 Delfin 30 7 7 16 19:31 28
16 Manta 30 5 6 19 17:42 21
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)