Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Dep. Pasto vs Deportes Tolima

Colombia Colombia

Primera A Estadio Departamental Libertad, Pasto
Our Tip

Match Events

7'
Guzman S.
22'
Risueno J.
30' Event
Gonzalez J.

AI Match Summary

Deportes Tolima in this Primera A tie, finishing 0-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Dep. Pasto
44%
Draws
20%
Deportes Tolima
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Dep. Pasto haven't matched Deportes Tolima's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Deportes Tolima arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Dep. Pasto, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Dep. Pasto Clean Sheet 19%
Deportes Tolima Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dep. Pasto Deportes Tolima
Matches Played 27 35
Wins 14 16
Draws 4 10
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 0.5 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 13, 2026 Primera A
Dep. Pasto vs Deportes Tolima
0:2
May 9, 2026 Primera A
Deportes Tolima vs Dep. Pasto
1:0
Apr 11, 2026 Primera A
Dep. Pasto vs Deportes Tolima
1:0
Jul 12, 2025 Primera A
Dep. Pasto vs Deportes Tolima
3:2
Jan 28, 2025 Primera A
Deportes Tolima vs Dep. Pasto
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dep. Pasto Compare

Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Deportes Tolima Compare

Top Goalscorer Gonzalez J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Torres Patino J. P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dep. Pasto 36 / 100
Deportes Tolima 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dep. Pasto Deportes Tolima

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DEP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dep. Pasto scored in 74% of their last 27 games.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Deportes Tolima has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: Deportes Tolima conceded in 57% of 35 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Dep. Pasto VS Deportes Tolima
0.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
38% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Dep. Pasto

(Home)
22 Jul
Dep. Pasto
0 : 1
Bogota
13 May
Dep. Pasto
0 : 2
Deportes Tolima
09 May
Deportes Tolima
1 : 0
Dep. Pasto
03 May
Junior
4 : 3
Dep. Pasto
23 Apr
Dep. Pasto
1 : 2
Santa Fe
Page 1 of 6

Deportes Tolima

(Away)
21 Jul
Deportes Tolima
2 : 1
Quindio
27 May
Universitario de Deportes
0 : 0
Deportes Tolima
23 May
Atl. Nacional
3 : 1
Deportes Tolima
19 May
Coquimbo
3 : 0
Deportes Tolima
16 May
Deportes Tolima
0 : 1
Atl. Nacional
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Atl. Nacional9
Inter Bogotá2
Dep. Pasto0
Deportes Tolima3
Junior3
Once Caldas2
America De Cali1
Santa Fe5
Semi-finals
Atl. Nacional4
Deportes Tolima1
Junior2
Santa Fe1
Final
Atl. Nacional1
Junior3