Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Dep. Santo Domingo vs EL Nacional

Ecuador Ecuador

Copa Ecuador 2024 Estadio Etho Vega
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Dep. Santo Domingo play EL Nacional in the Copa Ecuador 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Dep. Santo Domingo averaged 1.17 goals scored and 0.96 conceded. EL Nacional averaged 1 goals scored and 2.03 conceded. In past meetings, Dep. Santo Domingo won 0, EL Nacional won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jun 11, 2026 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Dep. Santo Domingo and 0.44 for EL Nacional. This points to a Dep. Santo Domingo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Dep. Santo Domingo
35%
Draws
22%
EL Nacional
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Dep. Santo Domingo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence
  • Dep. Santo Domingo picked up more points recently compared to EL Nacional.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 0.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%
Over 2.5 Goals 49%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%
Dep. Santo Domingo Clean Sheet 31%
EL Nacional Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 65%
Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dep. Santo Domingo EL Nacional
Matches Played 23 31
Wins 10 6
Draws 6 6
Losses 7 19
Goals Scored 1.17 1
Goals Conceded 0.96 2.03
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.38 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 11, 2026 Serie B
EL Nacional vs Dep. Santo Domingo
0:0
Apr 10, 2026 Serie B
Dep. Santo Domingo vs EL Nacional
1:1
Sep 4, 2024 Copa Ecuador
Dep. Santo Domingo vs EL Nacional
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dep. Santo Domingo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

EL Nacional Compare

Top Goalscorer Ordonez J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Cortez Casierra G. J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dep. Santo Domingo 45 / 100
EL Nacional 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dep. Santo Domingo EL Nacional

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Dep. Santo Domingo or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23%
2.86
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Dep. Santo Domingo attacking → ← attacking EL Nacional

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dep. Santo Domingo scored in 65% of their last 23 games.

EL Nacional let in goals in 90% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.33 goals.

Dep. Santo Domingo went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

EL Nacional lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

36 Points in last 5 24
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.50
0.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.13