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Dep. Santo Domingo vs Independiente del Valle

Ecuador Ecuador

Copa Ecuador
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Dep. Santo Domingo play Independiente del Valle in the Copa Ecuador. It looks like a close match. Recently, Dep. Santo Domingo averaged 1.23 goals scored and 0.91 conceded. Independiente del Valle averaged 1.89 goals scored and 0.93 conceded. In past meetings, Dep. Santo Domingo won 4, Independiente del Valle won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 12, 2025 ended 2-1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for Dep. Santo Domingo and 1.31 for Independiente del Valle. This points to a Independiente del Valle double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Dep. Santo Domingo
18%
Draws
46%
Independiente del Valle
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Independiente del Valle

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Dep. Santo Domingo picked up more points recently compared to Independiente del Valle.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 1.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%
Dep. Santo Domingo Clean Sheet 18%
Independiente del Valle Clean Sheet 17%
First Half Goal 61%
Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dep. Santo Domingo Independiente del Valle
Matches Played 22 28
Wins 10 20
Draws 6 3
Losses 6 5
Goals Scored 1.23 1.89
Goals Conceded 0.91 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.38 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 12, 2025 Copa Ecuador
Dep. Santo Domingo vs Independiente del Valle
2-1
Apr 12, 2025 Copa Ecuador
Independiente del Valle vs Dep. Santo Domingo
2-1
Mar 12, 2025 Copa Ecuador
Dep. Santo Domingo vs Independiente del Valle
2-0
Feb 12, 2025 Copa Ecuador
Independiente del Valle vs Dep. Santo Domingo
1-2
Jan 12, 2025 Copa Ecuador
Dep. Santo Domingo vs Independiente del Valle
3-1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dep. Santo Domingo 36 / 100
Independiente del Valle 45 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dep. Santo Domingo Independiente del Valle

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Independiente del Valle or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +28.5%
3.57
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.38
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Dep. Santo Domingo attacking → ← attacking Independiente del Valle

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dep. Santo Domingo scored in 68% of their last 22 games.

Independiente del Valle let in goals in 54% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Dep. Santo Domingo went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Independiente del Valle lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

36 Points in last 5 63
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 2.25
0.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00