Sport Picks
Deportes Tolima vs Atl. Nacional
Colombia
Primera A Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro 
AI Match Summary
Deportes Tolima play Atl. Nacional in the Primera A. It looks like a close match. Recently, Deportes Tolima averaged 1.23 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. Atl. Nacional averaged 1.74 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. In past meetings, Deportes Tolima won 1, Atl. Nacional won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 23, 2026 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Deportes Tolima and 1.50 for Atl. Nacional. This points to a Atl. Nacional double chance or over markets.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Deportes Tolima picked up more points recently compared to Atl. Nacional.
- Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.50 xG).
- Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Deportes Tolima | Atl. Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 31 |
| Wins | 13 | 20 |
| Draws | 9 | 2 |
| Losses | 9 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.23 | 1.74 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.9 | 0.97 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 2.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.75 | 0.88 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sokapicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Value Bet Detector (+EV)
Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds
Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations
Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries
Sokapicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Deportes Tolima scored in 68% of their last 31 games.
Atl. Nacional let in goals in 65% of their last 31 matches.
Games between these two average 2.60 goals.
Deportes Tolima went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Atl. Nacional lost 1 of their last 5 games.
Interactive Team Comparison Slider
Side-by-side comparison of team metrics
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atl. Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 35:15 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 31:24 | 35 |
| 3 | Dep. Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 29:25 | 34 |
| 4 | America De Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 25:15 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 31:22 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27:17 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29:22 | 29 |
| 8 | Inter Bogotá | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 26:26 | 28 |
| 9 | Dep. Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20:16 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 31:23 | 26 |
| 11 | Ind. Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26:24 | 26 |
| 12 | Aguilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 20:25 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 26:20 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 17:20 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza C.E.I.F. | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22:27 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 20:33 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13:27 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 15:32 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22:35 | 16 |
| 20 | Dep. Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 15:32 | 10 |