Sport Picks

South America

Copa Libertadores Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, Ibagué

Deportes Tolima

3 - 0

Club Nacional

Our Tip

Match Events

45'

Torres Patino J. P.

Penalty Missed

45'

Sandoval L.

(Penalty)

45'

Sandoval L.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Deportes Tolima in this Copa Libertadores tie, finishing 3-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Deportes Tolima

33%

Draws

27%

Club Nacional

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Deportes Tolima

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Form's been kind to Club Nacional lately — more wins on the board than Deportes Tolima.
40% — that's where the model lands on Deportes Tolima taking it.
Club Nacional arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
Historical meetings favor Deportes Tolima, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 6%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%

Deportes Tolima Clean Sheet 68%

Club Nacional Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Deportes Tolima	Club Nacional
Matches Played	28	29
Wins	12	13
Draws	7	4
Losses	9	12
Goals Scored	0.75	0.88
Goals Conceded	1.5	0.88
Expected Goals (xG)	0.75	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 7, 2026 Copa Libertadores

Deportes Tolima vs Club Nacional

3:0

Apr 14, 2026 Copa Libertadores

Club Nacional vs Deportes Tolima

3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Deportes Tolima Compare

Top Goalscorer Mosquera J.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Gonzalez J.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.58

Avg xA / game 0.38

Club Nacional Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Deportes Tolima 50 / 100

Club Nacional 28 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Deportes Tolima Club Nacional

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DEP Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.50 goals when they meet.

Deportes Tolima found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (28 games).

Club Nacional's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

Deportes Tolima went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Deportes Tolima VS Club Nacional

0.75 Goals Scored 0.88

1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88

63% Over 1.5 50%

63% Over 2.5 50%

25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Deportes Tolima

(Home)

28 Jul

Quindio

3 : 1

Deportes Tolima

26 Jul

Deportes Tolima

2 : 1

Junior

21 Jul

Deportes Tolima

2 : 1

Quindio

27 May

Universitario de Deportes

0 : 0

Deportes Tolima

23 May

Atl. Nacional

3 : 1

Deportes Tolima

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Club Nacional

(Away)

28 Jul

Tigre

1 : 2

Club Nacional

21 Jul

Club Nacional

0 : 3

Tigre

17 Jul

Club Nacional

1 : 2

Wanderers

11 Jul

Danubio

0 : 0

Club Nacional

06 Jun

Club Nacional

2 : 1

Juventud

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