Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Deportes Tolima vs Dep. Pasto

Colombia Colombia

Primera A Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, Ibagué
Deportes Tolima Logo

Deportes Tolima

1 - 0
FT
Dep. Pasto Logo

Dep. Pasto

Our Tip

Match Events

39'
Estupinan A.
41' Event
Sandoval L.
45'
Goez Y.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-2. This leg finished 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Deportes Tolima
20%
Draws
10%
Dep. Pasto
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Deportes Tolima

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Deportes Tolima lately — more wins on the board than Dep. Pasto.
  • Model gives Deportes Tolima a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Deportes Tolima have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Deportes Tolima, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Deportes Tolima Clean Sheet 20%
Dep. Pasto Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Deportes Tolima Dep. Pasto
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 12 8
Draws 6 5
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.36 1.19
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 13, 2026 Primera A
Dep. Pasto vs Deportes Tolima
0:2
May 9, 2026 Primera A
Deportes Tolima vs Dep. Pasto
1:0
Apr 11, 2026 Primera A
Dep. Pasto vs Deportes Tolima
1:0
Jul 12, 2025 Primera A
Dep. Pasto vs Deportes Tolima
3:2
Jan 28, 2025 Primera A
Deportes Tolima vs Dep. Pasto
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Deportes Tolima Compare

Top Goalscorer Sandoval L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Dep. Pasto Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Deportes Tolima 42 / 100
Dep. Pasto 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Deportes Tolima Dep. Pasto

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Deportes Tolima scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: Dep. Pasto conceded in 74% of 27 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Deportes Tolima remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Deportes Tolima VS Dep. Pasto
1 Goals Scored 0.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Deportes Tolima

(Home)
01 Sept
Deportes Tolima
2 : 1
Cucuta
26 Aug
Independiente del Valle
3 : 1
Deportes Tolima
22 Aug
Deportes Tolima
0 : 0
Bucaramanga
19 Aug
Deportes Tolima
0 : 1
Independiente del Valle
08 Aug
Deportes Tolima
2 : 1
Inter Bogotá
Page 1 of 6

Dep. Pasto

(Away)
31 Aug
Dep. Pasto
1 : 2
Dep. Pereira
28 Aug
Inter Bogotá
1 : 1
Dep. Pasto
23 Aug
Dep. Pasto
0 : 1
Llaneros
09 Aug
Dep. Pasto
0 : 2
Dep. Cali
05 Aug
Millonarios
2 : 0
Dep. Pasto
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Atl. Nacional 9
Inter Bogotá 2
Dep. Pasto 0
Deportes Tolima 3
Junior 3
Once Caldas 2
America De Cali 1
Santa Fe 5
Semi-finals
Atl. Nacional 4
Deportes Tolima 1
Junior 2
Santa Fe 1
Final
Atl. Nacional 1
Junior 3