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Deportivo Achuapa vs Mictlan

Guatemala Guatemala

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Winston Pineda
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Deportivo Achuapa play Mictlan in the Liga Nacional 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Deportivo Achuapa averaged 0.77 goals scored and 1.45 conceded. Mictlan averaged 1.07 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. In past meetings, Deportivo Achuapa won 3, Mictlan won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 21, 2026 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Deportivo Achuapa and 1.50 for Mictlan. This points to a Mictlan double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Deportivo Achuapa
18%
Draws
42%
Mictlan
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Mictlan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Deportivo Achuapa picked up more points recently compared to Mictlan.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 61%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%
Deportivo Achuapa Clean Sheet 16%
Mictlan Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 55%
Second Half Goal 58%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Deportivo Achuapa Mictlan
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 7 8
Draws 8 8
Losses 16 14
Goals Scored 0.77 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Liga Nacional
Deportivo Achuapa vs Mictlan
0:2
Feb 2, 2026 Liga Nacional
Mictlan vs Deportivo Achuapa
0:1
Nov 16, 2025 Liga Nacional
Deportivo Achuapa vs Mictlan
1:0
Sep 14, 2025 Liga Nacional
Mictlan vs Deportivo Achuapa
1:0
Jan 7, 2024 Club Friendly
Mictlan vs Deportivo Achuapa
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Deportivo Achuapa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Mictlan Compare

Top Goalscorer Colon S.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Deportivo Achuapa 39 / 100
Mictlan 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Deportivo Achuapa Mictlan

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Mictlan or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +25.2%
3.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +18.9%
3.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Deportivo Achuapa attacking → ← attacking Mictlan

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Deportivo Achuapa scored in 58% of their last 31 games.

Mictlan let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Deportivo Achuapa went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Mictlan lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

29 Points in last 5 32
0.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Xelaju22116534:1939
2Municipal22115632:2138
3Deportivo Mixco22106630:2636
4Comunicaciones22112928:2635
5Antigua2297634:2934
6Coban Imperial2288629:2232
7Guastatoya2287729:2131
8Marquense22931025:2930
9Mictlan2276925:3627
10Malacateco22641219:2522
11Aurora F.C.22481014:3020
12Deportivo Achuapa22541317:3219