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Deportivo Fabril vs Numancia

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Deportivo Fabril play Numancia in the Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Deportivo Fabril averaged 1.63 goals scored and 0.63 conceded. Numancia averaged 1.31 goals scored and 0.84 conceded. In past meetings, Deportivo Fabril won 1, Numancia won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 22, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Deportivo Fabril and 0.88 for Numancia. This points to a Deportivo Fabril double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Deportivo Fabril
21%
Draws
36%
Numancia
Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Deportivo Fabril

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Deportivo Fabril picked up more points recently compared to Numancia.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 0.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%
Deportivo Fabril Clean Sheet 25%
Numancia Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Deportivo Fabril Numancia
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 16 13
Draws 9 10
Losses 5 9
Goals Scored 1.63 1.31
Goals Conceded 0.63 0.84
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Deportivo Fabril vs Numancia
2:1
Dec 13, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Numancia vs Deportivo Fabril
3:0
Feb 9, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Deportivo Fabril vs Numancia
0:2
Sep 29, 2024 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Numancia vs Deportivo Fabril
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Deportivo Fabril Compare

Top Goalscorer Najera M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Carrillo N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Numancia Compare

Top Goalscorer Alvarez P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Deportivo Fabril 44 / 100
Numancia 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Deportivo Fabril Numancia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Deportivo Fabril or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23%
2.86
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Deportivo Fabril attacking → ← attacking Numancia

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Deportivo Fabril scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Numancia let in goals in 63% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.25 goals.

Deportivo Fabril went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Numancia lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

57 Points in last 5 49
2.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
0.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Deportivo Fabril34209559:2269
2Real Oviedo B341610850:3558
3Numancia341511846:3156
4UD Ourense341510940:3455
5Coruxo FC341571246:3752
6Gimnastica Segoviana341491137:3651
7Real Avila341481248:5250
8Salamanca CF UDS341481243:3650
9Rayo Cantabria341115863:5048
10Bergantinos341391244:3748
11Atletico Astorga341291341:4345
12Marino De Luanco3411121131:2645
13Valladolid Promesas341291359:5845
14Langreo3411101335:4143
15Sarriana341171642:4240
16Burgos CF B348121438:5536
17Lealtad34772031:5428
18UD Samano34362523:8715