Sport Picks

Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026

UD Ourense

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Deportivo Fabril play UD Ourense in the Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Deportivo Fabril averaged 1.63 goals scored and 0.63 conceded. UD Ourense averaged 1.33 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. In past meetings, Deportivo Fabril won 1, UD Ourense won 1, and they drew 3. Their last match on Apr 12, 2026 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.56 for Deportivo Fabril and 1.00 for UD Ourense. This points to a Deportivo Fabril double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%

Deportivo Fabril

35%

Draws

31%

UD Ourense

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Deportivo Fabril

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Deportivo Fabril picked up more points recently compared to UD Ourense.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 1.00 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 66%

Over 2.5 Goals 48%

Over 3.5 Goals 29%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%

Deportivo Fabril Clean Sheet 23%

UD Ourense Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 59%

Second Half Goal 63%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Deportivo Fabril	UD Ourense
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	16	16
Draws	9	8
Losses	5	6
Goals Scored	1.63	1.33
Goals Conceded	0.63	0.97
Expected Goals (xG)	2.25	1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.38	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 1

Deportivo Fabril vs UD Ourense

Possession: 59% - 58% Cards: 0 - 3

3:0

Nov 1, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 1

UD Ourense vs Deportivo Fabril

Possession: 56% - 45% Cards: 3 - 2

2:1

Apr 2, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 1

Deportivo Fabril vs UD Ourense

Possession: 59% - 42% Cards: 4 - 3

1:1

Dec 8, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 1

UD Ourense vs Deportivo Fabril

Possession: 55% - 52% Cards: 1 - 2

2:2

Mar 22, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 1

UD Ourense vs Deportivo Fabril

Possession: 47% - 52% Cards: 0 - 2

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Deportivo Fabril Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodrigues D.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Najera M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.73

Avg xA / game 1.13

UD Ourense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48

Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Deportivo Fabril 35 / 100

UD Ourense 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Deportivo Fabril UD Ourense

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Deportivo Fabril or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +30.9%

3.85

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.2%

2.38

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Deportivo Fabril attacking → ← attacking UD Ourense

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Deportivo Fabril scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

UD Ourense let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Deportivo Fabril went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

UD Ourense lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

57 Points in last 5 56

2.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.63

0.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Deportivo Fabril	34	20	9	5	59:22	69
2	Real Oviedo B	34	16	10	8	50:35	58
3	Numancia	34	15	11	8	46:31	56
4	UD Ourense	34	15	10	9	40:34	55
5	Coruxo FC	34	15	7	12	46:37	52
6	Gimnastica Segoviana	34	14	9	11	37:36	51
7	Real Avila	34	14	8	12	48:52	50
8	Salamanca CF UDS	34	14	8	12	43:36	50
9	Rayo Cantabria	34	11	15	8	63:50	48
10	Bergantinos	34	13	9	12	44:37	48
11	Atletico Astorga	34	12	9	13	41:43	45
12	Marino De Luanco	34	11	12	11	31:26	45
13	Valladolid Promesas	34	12	9	13	59:58	45
14	Langreo	34	11	10	13	35:41	43
15	Sarriana	34	11	7	16	42:42	40
16	Burgos CF B	34	8	12	14	38:55	36
17	Lealtad	34	7	7	20	31:54	28
18	UD Samano	34	3	6	25	23:87	15