Sport Picks
Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes Merida - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Venezuela
Liga FUTVE Estadio Olimpico de la UCV, Caracas 
Match Events
44'
44'
Hernandez J.
Assist: Montero A.
47'
47'
Ortiz G.
49'
49'
Sulbaran M.
AI Match Summary
The Liga FUTVE game between Deportivo La Guaira and Estudiantes Merida finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Estudiantes Merida.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
30%
39%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Estudiantes Merida
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Estudiantes Merida come out ahead of Deportivo La Guaira on wins alone.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
- Regular Liga FUTVE form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Deportivo La Guaira here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Deportivo La Guaira Clean Sheet 22%
Estudiantes Merida Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Deportivo La Guaira | Estudiantes Merida |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 29 |
| Wins | 10 | 11 |
| Draws | 12 | 5 |
| Losses | 9 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.26 | 1.14 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.19 | 1.24 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 30, 2026 Liga FUTVE
Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes Merida
1:2
Mar 6, 2026 Liga FUTVE
Estudiantes Merida vs Deportivo La Guaira
0:1
Aug 24, 2025 Liga FUTVE
Estudiantes Merida vs Deportivo La Guaira
1:2
Mar 16, 2025 Liga FUTVE
Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes Merida
2:1
Nov 13, 2024 Liga FUTVE
Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes Merida
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Deportivo La Guaira Compare
Top Goalscorer Ortiz G.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Estudiantes Merida Compare
Top Goalscorer Hernandez J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Deportivo La Guaira 37 / 100
Estudiantes Merida 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Deportivo La Guaira Estudiantes Merida
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Estudiantes Merida Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Estudiantes Merida's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.
Deportivo La Guaira found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (31 games).
H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.
Solid form: Deportivo La Guaira remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Deportivo La Guaira VS Estudiantes Merida
2 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Deportivo La Guaira
(Home) 10 Oct
Portuguesa
0 : 0 Deportivo La Guaira
20 Sept
Deportivo La Guaira
2 : 4 Dep. Tachira
15 Sept
Carabobo
1 : 0 Deportivo La Guaira
12 Sept
Deportivo La Guaira
0 : 2 Universidad Central
06 Sept
Deportivo La Guaira
2 : 0 Academia Anzoategui
Page 1 of 7
20 Sept
Deportivo La Guaira
2 : 4 Dep. Tachira
12 Sept
Deportivo La Guaira
0 : 2 Universidad Central
06 Sept
Deportivo La Guaira
2 : 0 Academia Anzoategui
30 Aug
Deportivo La Guaira
1 : 2 Estudiantes Merida
16 Aug
Deportivo La Guaira
6 : 1 Zamora
Page 1 of 3
Estudiantes Merida
(Away) 20 Sept
Estudiantes Merida
1 : 1 Trujillanos
16 Sept
Portuguesa
2 : 1 Estudiantes Merida
12 Sept
Estudiantes Merida
2 : 0 Dep. Tachira
07 Sept
Carabobo
1 : 0 Estudiantes Merida
03 Sept
Estudiantes Merida
1 : 1 Universidad Central
Page 1 of 6
16 Sept
Portuguesa
2 : 1 Estudiantes Merida
07 Sept
Carabobo
1 : 0 Estudiantes Merida
30 Aug
Deportivo La Guaira
1 : 2 Estudiantes Merida
10 Aug
Rayo Zuliano
3 : 0 Estudiantes Merida
03 Aug
Caracas
2 : 2 Estudiantes Merida
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metropolitanos | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 28:9 | 31 |
| 2 | Dep. Tachira | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 28:15 | 26 |
| 3 | Academia Puerto Cabello | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 15:9 | 19 |
| 4 | Carabobo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 12:8 | 18 |
| 5 | Portuguesa | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 14:12 | 18 |
| 6 | Deportivo La Guaira | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 21:16 | 17 |
| 7 | Estudiantes Merida | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 12:12 | 16 |
| 8 | Universidad Central | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13:15 | 15 |
| 9 | Monagas | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 12:13 | 14 |
| 10 | Caracas | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 9:14 | 11 |
| 11 | Trujillanos | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12:18 | 11 |
| 12 | Rayo Zuliano | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 17:27 | 11 |
| 13 | Zamora | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10:21 | 8 |
| 14 | Academia Anzoategui | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6:20 | 5 |
Promotion - Liga FUTVE (Clausura - Quadrangular)
