Sport Picks

Argentina

Primera Nacional 2025 Estadio Abel Sastre

Arsenal Sarandi

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Deportivo Madryn play Arsenal Sarandi in the Primera Nacional 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Deportivo Madryn averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. Arsenal Sarandi averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. In past meetings, Deportivo Madryn won 1, Arsenal Sarandi won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Sep 28, 2025 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Deportivo Madryn and 1.13 for Arsenal Sarandi. This points to a Arsenal Sarandi double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

Deportivo Madryn

39%

Draws

30%

Arsenal Sarandi

Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence

Arsenal Sarandi has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Deportivo Madryn.
Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 39% draw probability.
League standings and seasonal metrics in Primera Nacional 2025 provide steady trend data.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 63%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%

Deportivo Madryn Clean Sheet 21%

Arsenal Sarandi Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Deportivo Madryn	Arsenal Sarandi
Matches Played	29	28
Wins	11	13
Draws	8	9
Losses	10	6
Goals Scored	1.25	1.13
Goals Conceded	1.13	1.25
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 28, 2025 Primera Nacional

Deportivo Madryn vs Arsenal Sarandi

Possession: 44% - 49% Cards: 0 - 2

2:1

May 25, 2025 Primera Nacional

Arsenal Sarandi vs Deportivo Madryn

Possession: 41% - 52% Cards: 1 - 2

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Deportivo Madryn Compare

Top Goalscorer Mana N.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Crego D.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Arsenal Sarandi Compare

Top Goalscorer Gonzalez T.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.03

Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Deportivo Madryn 32 / 100

Arsenal Sarandi 41 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Deportivo Madryn Arsenal Sarandi

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ARS Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Deportivo Madryn scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Arsenal Sarandi let in goals in 54% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Deportivo Madryn went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Arsenal Sarandi lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Deportivo Madryn VS Arsenal Sarandi

1.25 Goals Scored 1.13

1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25

63% Over 1.5 63%

63% Over 2.5 50%

25% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Deportivo Madryn	34	16	12	6	45:28	60
2	Atletico Atlanta	34	14	13	7	31:28	55
3	Tristan Suarez	34	12	16	6	33:23	52
4	Gimnasia y Tiro	34	13	12	9	34:23	51
5	San Miguel	34	12	14	8	32:28	50
6	San Martin T.	34	12	13	9	32:29	49
7	Deportivo Maipu	34	12	12	10	34:30	48
8	Patronato	34	12	12	10	31:28	48
9	Colegiales	34	13	8	13	26:26	47
10	All Boys	34	8	17	9	26:25	41
11	Racing Cordoba	34	10	11	13	38:45	41
12	Ferro	34	10	11	13	24:33	41
13	Los Andes	34	10	10	14	28:31	40
14	Club Atletico Guemes	34	8	16	10	28:32	40
15	Quilmes	34	8	14	12	30:32	38
16	Almagro	34	7	14	13	24:31	35
17	Arsenal Sarandi	34	8	10	16	38:47	34
18	Alvarado	34	6	15	13	18:33	33

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gimnasia Mendoza	34	17	12	5	35:18	63
2	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto	34	16	12	6	35:22	60
3	CA Estudiantes	34	17	8	9	41:22	59
4	Deportivo Moron	34	15	13	6	36:19	58
5	Gimnasia Jujuy	34	15	12	7	36:20	57
6	Temperley	34	14	13	7	30:22	55
7	Agropecuario	34	15	9	10	43:34	54
8	Chaco For Ever	34	15	8	11	34:26	53
9	Chacarita Juniors	34	12	13	9	37:29	49
10	Defensores de Belgrano	34	12	12	10	30:26	48
11	Nueva Chicago	34	10	11	13	27:33	41
12	San Telmo	34	10	11	13	31:42	41
13	CA Mitre	34	10	10	14	28:31	40
14	Almirante Brown	34	8	12	14	28:38	36
15	Central Norte	34	10	6	18	27:41	36
16	Colon Santa Fe	34	9	5	20	22:39	32
17	Talleres Remedios Escalada	34	6	5	23	17:40	23
18	Defensores Unidos	34	3	12	19	17:52	21