Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera Division - Group 14 2014/2015

Castuera

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Deportivo Pacense play Castuera in the Tercera Division - Group 14 2014/2015. It looks like a close match. Recently, Deportivo Pacense averaged 1.35 goals scored and 1.94 conceded. Castuera averaged 1.24 goals scored and 1.88 conceded. In past meetings, Deportivo Pacense won 1, Castuera won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 8, 2015 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.79 for Deportivo Pacense and 0.99 for Castuera. This points to a Castuera double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%

Deportivo Pacense

23%

Draws

39%

Castuera

Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Castuera

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence

Deportivo Pacense picked up more points recently compared to Castuera.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.79 vs 0.99 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 66%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 85%

Over 2.5 Goals 66%

Over 3.5 Goals 40%

Over 4.5 Goals 20%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 60%

Deportivo Pacense Clean Sheet 23%

Castuera Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 77%

Second Half Goal 81%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Deportivo Pacense	Castuera
Matches Played	31	34
Wins	6	7
Draws	7	8
Losses	18	19
Goals Scored	1.35	1.24
Goals Conceded	1.94	1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2015 Tercera RFEF - Group 14

Deportivo Pacense vs Castuera

Possession: 58% - 43% Cards: 4 - 0

2:0

Sep 21, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 14

Castuera vs Deportivo Pacense

Possession: 45% - 47% Cards: 4 - 3

2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Deportivo Pacense 39 / 100

Castuera 37 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Deportivo Pacense Castuera

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Castuera or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +26.5%

3.33

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +10.2%

1.67

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Deportivo Pacense attacking → ← attacking Castuera

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Deportivo Pacense scored in 65% of their last 31 games.

Castuera let in goals in 88% of their last 34 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Deportivo Pacense went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Castuera lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

25 Points in last 5 29

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.38

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	AD Merida	38	31	5	2	101:20	98
2	Extremadura UD	38	26	9	3	86:24	87
3	Jerez CF	38	25	6	7	70:18	81
4	CD Badajoz	38	23	8	7	71:31	77
5	CD Coria	38	20	6	12	55:40	66
6	Moralo	38	19	8	11	65:44	65
7	Don Benito	38	18	10	10	48:37	64
8	CD Azuaga	38	15	10	13	44:44	55
9	Pueblonuevo	38	13	13	12	50:42	52
10	Santa Amalia	38	15	6	17	44:50	51
11	Diter Zafra	38	12	14	12	51:48	50
12	Fuente de Cantos	38	12	6	20	39:61	42
13	Atletico San Jose Promesas	38	13	3	22	48:75	42
14	Olivenza FC	38	11	7	20	46:69	40
15	CP Valdivia	38	10	7	21	43:73	37
16	Sanvicenteno	38	9	7	22	34:61	34
17	Deportivo Pacense	38	9	6	23	46:93	33
18	Castuera	38	8	9	21	39:68	33
19	UP Plasencia	38	6	9	23	49:83	27
20	Hernan Cortes	38	6	9	23	35:83	27