Sport Picks
Derby U21 vs Arsenal U21
England
Premier League 2 2025/2026 The Proctor Cars Stadium, Matlock 
Match Events
21'
21'
Perry J.
28'
28'
Sub
Perry J. In: Crolla L.
Out: Perry J.
29'
29'
Dudziak H.
AI Match Summary
The Premier League 2 2025/2026 game between Derby U21 and Arsenal U21 finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Arsenal U21.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
15%
49%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Arsenal U21
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
49%
/ Medium Confidence
- Arsenal U21 carry the better recent record into this one.
- 49% — that's where the model lands on Arsenal U21 taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Derby U21 Clean Sheet 16%
Arsenal U21 Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Derby U21 | Arsenal U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 6 | 10 |
| Draws | 7 | 6 |
| Losses | 16 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.45 | 1.36 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.24 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.75 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 26, 2025 Premier League 2
Derby U21 vs Arsenal U21
0:1
Apr 7, 2025 Premier League 2
Arsenal U21 vs Derby U21
2:2
Apr 11, 2016 Premier League U21
Derby U21 vs Arsenal U21
1:2
Aug 21, 2015 Premier League U21
Arsenal U21 vs Derby U21
3:2
Mar 10, 2015 Premier League U21
Derby U21 vs Arsenal U21
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Derby U21 Compare
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88
Arsenal U21 Compare
Top Goalscorer Harriman-Annous A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Derby U21 19 / 100
Arsenal U21 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Derby U21 Arsenal U21
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Arsenal U21 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Derby U21 scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.
Defensive concern: Arsenal U21 conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.
These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.
Arsenal U21's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.
Scoring Trends
Derby U21 VS Arsenal U21
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
2 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Derby U21
(Home) 14 Aug
Derby U21
1 : 4 Hull City U21
01 Aug
Derby U21
0 : 3 Carlisle
27 Apr
Brentford U21
2 : 0 Derby U21
13 Apr
Reading U21
4 : 1 Derby U21
06 Apr
Derby U21
2 : 1 Sunderland U21
Page 1 of 6
14 Aug
Derby U21
1 : 4 Hull City U21
01 Aug
Derby U21
0 : 3 Carlisle
06 Apr
Derby U21
2 : 1 Sunderland U21
03 Apr
Derby U21
1 : 0 Manchester City U21
20 Mar
Derby U21
1 : 0 Middlesbrough U21
Page 1 of 3
Arsenal U21
(Away) 17 Jul
Boreham Wood
1 : 1 Arsenal U21
25 Apr
Manchester City U21
3 : 1 Arsenal U21
13 Apr
Crystal Palace U21
2 : 0 Arsenal U21
04 Apr
Arsenal U21
1 : 0 West Brom U21
23 Mar
Sunderland U21
3 : 1 Arsenal U21
Page 1 of 6
17 Jul
Boreham Wood
1 : 1 Arsenal U21
25 Apr
Manchester City U21
3 : 1 Arsenal U21
13 Apr
Crystal Palace U21
2 : 0 Arsenal U21
23 Mar
Sunderland U21
3 : 1 Arsenal U21
06 Mar
Norwich U21
2 : 2 Arsenal U21
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea U21 | 20 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 52:25 | 43 |
| 2 | Manchester United U21 | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 43:26 | 43 |
| 3 | Manchester City U21 | 20 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 59:21 | 40 |
| 4 | Fulham U21 | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 48:32 | 38 |
| 5 | Ipswich U21 | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 45:45 | 38 |
| 6 | Southampton U21 | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 36:29 | 36 |
| 7 | Liverpool U21 | 20 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 49:36 | 35 |
| 8 | Tottenham U21 | 20 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 42:32 | 35 |
| 9 | Leicester U21 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 48:42 | 31 |
| 10 | Crystal Palace U21 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 36:31 | 31 |
| 11 | Aston Villa U21 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 32:35 | 31 |
| 12 | Brighton U21 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 38:25 | 30 |
| 13 | West Ham U21 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 44:35 | 30 |
| 14 | Arsenal U21 | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 28:33 | 29 |
| 15 | Sunderland U21 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 41:40 | 28 |
| 16 | Middlesbrough U21 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 37:28 | 27 |
| 17 | Nottingham U21 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 23:23 | 26 |
| 18 | Everton U21 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 33:36 | 25 |
| 19 | Reading U21 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 29:36 | 25 |
| 20 | Stoke City U21 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 29:42 | 25 |
| 21 | Newcastle Utd U21 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 30:35 | 24 |
| 22 | Wolves U21 | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 30:45 | 23 |
| 23 | Norwich U21 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 32:42 | 20 |
| 24 | Derby U21 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 26:44 | 20 |
| 25 | Leeds U21 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 28:40 | 18 |
| 26 | West Brom U21 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 26:41 | 18 |
| 27 | Birmingham U21 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 26:52 | 17 |
| 28 | Blackburn U21 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 27:46 | 14 |
| 29 | Burnley U21 | 20 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 22:42 | 13 |
Promotion - Premier League 2 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Professional Development League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
