Sport Picks
Derby U21 vs Middlesbrough U21
England
Premier League 2 2025/2026 The Proctor Cars Stadium, Matlock 
Match Events
23'
23'
Gill K.
46'
46'
Sub
McAndrew N. In: Richards J.
Out: McAndrew N.
54'
54'
Sub
Campbell L. In: Bakre H.
Out: Campbell L.
AI Match Summary
The Premier League 2 2025/2026 game between Derby U21 and Middlesbrough U21 finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Derby U21.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
20%
40%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Derby U21 haven't matched Middlesbrough U21's recent run of results.
- Model gives Derby U21 a 36% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Middlesbrough U21 here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Derby U21 Clean Sheet 10%
Middlesbrough U21 Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Derby U21 | Middlesbrough U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 8 | 10 |
| Draws | 8 | 7 |
| Losses | 13 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.72 | 2.07 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.28 | 1.46 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 3.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 20, 2026 Premier League 2
Derby U21 vs Middlesbrough U21
1:0
Nov 5, 2023 Premier League 2
Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby U21
1:0
Mar 24, 2023 Premier League 2
Derby U21 vs Middlesbrough U21
1:5
Aug 12, 2022 Premier League 2
Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby U21
3:1
Jan 12, 2015 Premier League U21
Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby U21
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Derby U21 Compare
Top Goalscorer Oguntolu J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
Middlesbrough U21 Compare
Avg xG / game 2.73
Avg xA / game 1.67
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Derby U21 34 / 100
Middlesbrough U21 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Derby U21 Middlesbrough U21
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Middlesbrough U21 has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.
Derby U21 found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).
These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.
Derby U21 went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Derby U21 VS Middlesbrough U21
1.75 Goals Scored 2.88
3.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 63%
75% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Derby U21
(Home) 11 Sept
Derby U21
1 : 3 Tottenham U21
08 Sept
Gateshead
1 : 3 Derby U21
31 Aug
Derby U21
4 : 4 West Brom U21
24 Aug
Reading U21
1 : 3 Derby U21
18 Aug
Halifax
6 : 2 Derby U21
Page 1 of 6
11 Sept
Derby U21
1 : 3 Tottenham U21
31 Aug
Derby U21
4 : 4 West Brom U21
14 Aug
Derby U21
1 : 4 Hull City U21
01 Aug
Derby U21
0 : 3 Carlisle
06 Apr
Derby U21
2 : 1 Sunderland U21
Page 1 of 3
Middlesbrough U21
(Away) 13 Sept
Middlesbrough U21
4 : 4 Leeds U21
09 Sept
Tamworth
1 : 3 Middlesbrough U21
31 Aug
Bournemouth U21
3 : 1 Middlesbrough U21
23 Aug
Middlesbrough U21
0 : 1 Norwich U21
18 Aug
Solihull Moors
1 : 3 Middlesbrough U21
Page 1 of 6
09 Sept
Tamworth
1 : 3 Middlesbrough U21
31 Aug
Bournemouth U21
3 : 1 Middlesbrough U21
18 Aug
Solihull Moors
1 : 3 Middlesbrough U21
11 Aug
Hartlepool
0 : 10 Middlesbrough U21
25 Apr
Chelsea U21
1 : 0 Middlesbrough U21
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea U21 | 20 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 52:25 | 43 |
| 2 | Manchester United U21 | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 43:26 | 43 |
| 3 | Manchester City U21 | 20 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 59:21 | 40 |
| 4 | Fulham U21 | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 48:32 | 38 |
| 5 | Ipswich U21 | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 45:45 | 38 |
| 6 | Southampton U21 | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 36:29 | 36 |
| 7 | Liverpool U21 | 20 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 49:36 | 35 |
| 8 | Tottenham U21 | 20 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 42:32 | 35 |
| 9 | Leicester U21 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 48:42 | 31 |
| 10 | Crystal Palace U21 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 36:31 | 31 |
| 11 | Aston Villa U21 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 32:35 | 31 |
| 12 | Brighton U21 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 38:25 | 30 |
| 13 | West Ham U21 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 44:35 | 30 |
| 14 | Arsenal U21 | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 28:33 | 29 |
| 15 | Sunderland U21 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 41:40 | 28 |
| 16 | Middlesbrough U21 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 37:28 | 27 |
| 17 | Nottingham U21 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 23:23 | 26 |
| 18 | Everton U21 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 33:36 | 25 |
| 19 | Reading U21 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 29:36 | 25 |
| 20 | Stoke City U21 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 29:42 | 25 |
| 21 | Newcastle Utd U21 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 30:35 | 24 |
| 22 | Wolves U21 | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 30:45 | 23 |
| 23 | Norwich U21 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 32:42 | 20 |
| 24 | Derby U21 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 26:44 | 20 |
| 25 | Leeds U21 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 28:40 | 18 |
| 26 | West Brom U21 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 26:41 | 18 |
| 27 | Birmingham U21 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 26:52 | 17 |
| 28 | Blackburn U21 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 27:46 | 14 |
| 29 | Burnley U21 | 20 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 22:42 | 13 |
Promotion - Premier League 2 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Professional Development League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
