Sport Picks

England

Premier League Cup 2025/2026

Derby U21

2 - 2

Stoke City U21

Our Tip

Match Events

Osong J.

Assist: Eames O.

30'

Oguntolu J.

33'

Otegbayo R.

Assist: Chibueze C.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-2. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

Derby U21

30%

Draws

39%

Stoke City U21

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Stoke City U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence

Derby U21's 1.66 goals per match outpaces what Stoke City U21 have produced (1.21).
Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
Historical meetings favor Stoke City U21, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 25%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%

Derby U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Stoke City U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Derby U21	Stoke City U21
Matches Played	29	28
Wins	7	7
Draws	8	6
Losses	14	15
Goals Scored	1.66	1.21
Goals Conceded	2.31	2.25
Expected Goals (xG)	1.69	1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 21, 2025 Premier League Cup

Stoke City U21 vs Derby U21

1:1

Nov 21, 2025 Premier League Cup

Derby U21 vs Stoke City U21

2:2

Mar 14, 2025 Premier League 2

Stoke City U21 vs Derby U21

5:3

Mar 15, 2024 Premier League 2

Derby U21 vs Stoke City U21

1:2

Mar 20, 2023 Premier League 2

Derby U21 vs Stoke City U21

1:6

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Derby U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Osong J.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Oguntolu J.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.3

Avg xA / game 0.84

Stoke City U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Otegbayo R.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Enabulele O.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.76

Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Derby U21 34 / 100

Stoke City U21 20 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Derby U21 Stoke City U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Stoke City U21 Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Stoke City U21 has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 4.80 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Derby U21 scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Derby U21 went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Derby U21 VS Stoke City U21

1.63 Goals Scored 0.75

3.13 Goals Conceded 1.75

100% Over 1.5 50%

88% Over 2.5 50%

63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Derby U21

(Home)

31 Aug

Derby U21

4 : 4

West Brom U21

24 Aug

Reading U21

1 : 3

Derby U21

18 Aug

Halifax

6 : 2

Derby U21

14 Aug

Derby U21

1 : 4

Hull City U21

01 Aug

Derby U21

0 : 3

Carlisle

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Stoke City U21

(Away)

28 Aug

Norwich U21

0 : 0

Stoke City U21

21 Aug

Stoke City U21

2 : 3

Brentford U21

18 Aug

Scunthorpe

4 : 0

Stoke City U21

14 Aug

Stoke City U21

0 : 0

Leeds U21

21 Jul

Chester

0 : 1

Stoke City U21

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