Sport Picks
Derby vs Birmingham Prediction & H2H Stats
England
Championship Pride Park, Derby 
Match Events
19'
19'
Fuseini M.
21'
21'
Cochrane A.
40'
40'
Clark B.
Assist: Szmodics S.
AI Match Summary
Birmingham in this Championship matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Birmingham.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
26%
35%
39%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Birmingham
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Birmingham lately — more wins on the board than Derby.
- Birmingham are the model's pick here, at 60%.
- European nights carry their own weight — this Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.8%
Derby Clean Sheet 16%
Birmingham Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Derby | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 13 |
| Draws | 3 | 8 |
| Losses | 16 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.27 | 1.37 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.47 | 1.33 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 12, 2026 Championship
Derby vs Birmingham
1:2
Mar 21, 2026 Championship
Derby vs Birmingham
1:0
Dec 26, 2025 Championship
Birmingham vs Derby
1:1
Jan 30, 2022 Championship
Derby vs Birmingham
2:2
Sep 10, 2021 Championship
Birmingham vs Derby
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Derby Compare
Top Goalscorer Clark B.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Birmingham Compare
Top Goalscorer Vicente C.
1 Goals Assists Leader Paik Seung-Ho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Derby 19 / 100
Birmingham 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Derby Birmingham
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Birmingham Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Derby scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.
Defensive concern: Birmingham conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.
Games between these two average 2.40 goals.
Derby went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Derby VS Birmingham
0.88 Goals Scored 1.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Derby
(Home) 19 Sept
Burnley
1 : 1 Derby
12 Sept
Derby
1 : 2 Birmingham
09 Sept
Derby
0 : 1 West Brom
05 Sept
West Ham
3 : 0 Derby
01 Sept
Portsmouth
0 : 2 Derby
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Derby
1 : 2 Birmingham
09 Sept
Derby
0 : 1 West Brom
29 Aug
Derby
0 : 3 Swansea
22 Aug
Derby
2 : 2 Cardiff
08 Aug
Derby
1 : 2 Lincoln City
Page 1 of 3
Birmingham
(Away) 19 Sept
Birmingham
2 : 2 Middlesbrough
12 Sept
Derby
1 : 2 Birmingham
09 Sept
Norwich
2 : 1 Birmingham
06 Sept
Birmingham
2 : 2 Wolves
01 Sept
Birmingham
1 : 1 Southampton
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Derby
1 : 2 Birmingham
09 Sept
Norwich
2 : 1 Birmingham
28 Aug
Wrexham
1 : 2 Birmingham
15 Aug
Sheffield Utd
0 : 0 Birmingham
08 Aug
Swansea
0 : 1 Birmingham
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13:6 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16:12 | 15 |
| 4 | Wolves | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15:10 | 14 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10:8 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10:7 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13:12 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11:12 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7:10 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12:11 | 11 |
| 11 | Millwall | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15:15 | 11 |
| 12 | Lincoln City | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7:8 | 11 |
| 13 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19:10 | 10 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9:12 | 10 |
| 15 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11:15 | 10 |
| 16 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:12 | 9 |
| 17 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 16:17 | 9 |
| 18 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:10 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7:10 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10:12 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7:14 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8:15 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9:17 | 4 |
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
