Sport Picks
Derby vs Lincoln City Prediction & H2H Stats
England
EFL Cup Pride Park, Derby 
Match Events
3'
3'
House B.
Assist: Varfolomeev I.
23'
23'
Jefferies D.
Assist: Draper F.
32'
32'
Reach A.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 1-2. This leg finished 1-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
20%
51%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lincoln City
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Lincoln City lately — more wins on the board than Derby.
- Derby are the model's pick here, at 42%.
- Lincoln City arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Derby, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Derby Clean Sheet 16%
Lincoln City Clean Sheet 13%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Derby | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 18 |
| Draws | 3 | 4 |
| Losses | 16 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.27 | 1.59 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.47 | 1.17 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 8, 2026 EFL Cup
Derby vs Lincoln City
1:2
Jan 20, 2024 League One
Lincoln City vs Derby
0:0
Dec 21, 2023 League One
Derby vs Lincoln City
3:1
Sep 19, 2023 EFL Trophy
Derby vs Lincoln City
2:0
Feb 14, 2023 League One
Derby vs Lincoln City
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Derby Compare
Top Goalscorer Szmodics S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Lincoln City Compare
Top Goalscorer House B.
1 Goals Assists Leader Jefferies D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Derby 41 / 100
Lincoln City 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Derby Lincoln City
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Derby scored in 80% of their last 30 games.
Games between these two average 2.20 goals.
Defensive concern: Lincoln City conceded in 55% of 29 recent games.
Solid form: Derby remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Derby VS Lincoln City
0.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Derby
(Home) 19 Sept
Burnley
1 : 1 Derby
12 Sept
Derby
1 : 2 Birmingham
09 Sept
Derby
0 : 1 West Brom
05 Sept
West Ham
3 : 0 Derby
01 Sept
Portsmouth
0 : 2 Derby
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Derby
1 : 2 Birmingham
09 Sept
Derby
0 : 1 West Brom
29 Aug
Derby
0 : 3 Swansea
22 Aug
Derby
2 : 2 Cardiff
08 Aug
Derby
1 : 2 Lincoln City
Page 1 of 3
Lincoln City
(Away) 19 Sept
Lincoln City
1 : 2 Swansea
15 Sept
Bristol City
0 : 1 Lincoln City
12 Sept
Preston
0 : 1 Lincoln City
08 Sept
Bournemouth
4 : 0 Lincoln City
05 Sept
Lincoln City
1 : 1 Southampton
Page 1 of 6
15 Sept
Bristol City
0 : 1 Lincoln City
12 Sept
Preston
0 : 1 Lincoln City
08 Sept
Bournemouth
4 : 0 Lincoln City
29 Aug
Bolton
0 : 1 Lincoln City
25 Aug
Blackpool
1 : 4 Lincoln City
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Fleetwood Town 1
Chesterfield 0
Salford 1
Shrewsbury 2
Burton 1
Blackburn 2
Mansfield 0
Sheffield Utd 3
Ipswich -
TBD -
Leicester 1
Northampton 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Arsenal -
Manchester City -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Cardiff 3
Swindon 2
Norwich 4
Milton Keynes Dons 1
Manchester United -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Brighton -
Preston 2
Huddersfield 1
TBD -
Everton -
Sheffield Wed 1
Bolton 0
Wolves 3
Port Vale 0
Cambridge Utd 2
Barnet 1
QPR 1
Millwall 2
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
Rotherham 1
West Brom 4
Sunderland -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stoke City 2
Oldham 0
TBD -
Hull City -
Wycombe 1
Stevenage 2
Bromley 1
Reading 2
Swansea 0
Birmingham 1
TBD -
Brentford -
Liverpool -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Tottenham -
TBD -
Cheltenham 1
Charlton 3
Chelsea -
TBD -
Gillingham 0
Luton 3
Nottingham -
TBD -
TBD -
Leeds -
Bristol City 0
Walsall 1
Leyton Orient 2
Oxford Utd 0
Bradford City 2
Rochdale 0
Burnley 2
Notts County 1
Watford 1
Crawley Town 0
Bristol Rovers 0
Peterborough 1
Barnsley 2
Wigan 1
Crewe 2
Accrington 1
Colchester 0
Southampton 2
West Ham 3
Portsmouth 1
Fulham -
TBD -
AFC Wimbledon 2
Newport 1
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stockport County 1
Doncaster 2
Middlesbrough 1
Wrexham 0
Bournemouth -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Grimsby 1
Blackpool 3
Derby 1
Lincoln City 2
Plymouth 2
Exeter 0
TBD -
Coventry -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/32-finals
Fleetwood Town 4
Shrewsbury 0
Blackburn 1
Sheffield Utd 2
Ipswich 3
Leicester 1
TBD -
Arsenal -
Manchester City -
TBD -
Cardiff 1
Norwich 2
Manchester United -
TBD -
TBD -
Brighton -
Preston 0
Everton 4
Sheffield Wed 0
Wolves 2
Cambridge Utd 0
Millwall 1
Newcastle Utd 3
West Brom 2
Sunderland -
TBD -
Stoke City 1
Hull City 2
Stevenage 0
Reading 3
Birmingham 1
Brentford 6
Liverpool -
TBD -
Tottenham 5
Charlton 1
Chelsea 2
Luton 0
Nottingham 0
Leeds 2
Walsall 0
Leyton Orient 1
Bradford City 1
Burnley 0
Watford 1
Peterborough 5
Barnsley 3
Crewe 2
Southampton 1
West Ham 4
Fulham 3
AFC Wimbledon 0
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
Doncaster 1
Middlesbrough 3
Bournemouth -
TBD -
Blackpool 1
Lincoln City 4
Plymouth 2
Coventry 4
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/16-finals
Fleetwood Town 1
Sheffield Utd 0
Ipswich 2
Arsenal 4
Manchester City 5
Norwich 0
Manchester United 2
Brighton 3
Everton 1
Wolves 0
Millwall 0
Newcastle Utd 1
Sunderland 1
Hull City 0
Reading 1
Brentford 2
Liverpool 3
Tottenham 1
Chelsea 6
Leeds 3
Leyton Orient 1
Bradford City 3
Peterborough 4
Barnsley 3
West Ham 2
Fulham 3
Crystal Palace 3
Middlesbrough 0
Bournemouth 4
Lincoln City 0
Coventry 1
Aston Villa 3
1/8-finals
Fleetwood Town -
Arsenal -
Manchester City -
Brighton -
Everton -
Newcastle Utd -
Sunderland -
Brentford -
Liverpool -
Chelsea -
Bradford City -
Peterborough -
Fulham -
Crystal Palace -
Bournemouth -
Aston Villa -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -
