Sport Picks
Match Events
22'
22'
Banel J.
Assist: Szmodics S.
26'
26'
Ozoh D.
62'
62'
Sub
Donley J. In: Jeon Jin-Woo
Out: Donley J.
AI Match Summary
Derby in this Championship 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Derby.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
20%
57%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Oxford Utd
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Derby have won more games recently than Oxford Utd.
- 57% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- European nights carry their own weight — this Championship 2025/2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Derby Clean Sheet 12%
Oxford Utd Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Derby | Oxford Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 13 | 11 |
| Draws | 2 | 8 |
| Losses | 14 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.48 | 1.17 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.34 | 1.14 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 18, 2026 Championship
Derby vs Oxford Utd
1:0
Oct 18, 2025 Championship
Oxford Utd vs Derby
1:0
Feb 11, 2025 Championship
Derby vs Oxford Utd
0:0
Oct 22, 2024 Championship
Oxford Utd vs Derby
1:1
Dec 29, 2023 League One
Oxford Utd vs Derby
2:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Derby Compare
Top Goalscorer Banel J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Oxford Utd Compare
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Derby 30 / 100
Oxford Utd 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Derby Oxford Utd
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Oxford Utd Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Derby scored in 90% of their last 29 outings.
Oxford Utd's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.
Games between these two average 1.80 goals.
Derby has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Derby VS Oxford Utd
1.5 Goals Scored 2
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Derby
(Home) 15 Aug
Charlton
2 : 1 Derby
08 Aug
Derby
1 : 2 Lincoln City
04 Aug
Rotherham
1 : 1 Derby
01 Aug
Burton
1 : 0 Derby
31 Jul
Mansfield
1 : 3 Derby
Page 1 of 6
08 Aug
Derby
1 : 2 Lincoln City
28 Jul
Derby
1 : 2 Valencia
02 May
Derby
1 : 2 Sheffield Utd
18 Apr
Derby
1 : 0 Oxford Utd
06 Apr
Derby
2 : 0 Stoke City
Page 1 of 3
Oxford Utd
(Away) 15 Aug
Oxford Utd
2 : 2 Milton Keynes Dons
08 Aug
Leyton Orient
2 : 0 Oxford Utd
01 Aug
Oxford Utd
2 : 0 Ipswich
28 Jul
Oxford Utd
3 : 1 Crawley Town
25 Jul
Barnet
1 : 2 Oxford Utd
Page 1 of 6
08 Aug
Leyton Orient
2 : 0 Oxford Utd
25 Jul
Barnet
1 : 2 Oxford Utd
21 Jul
Aldershot
1 : 3 Oxford Utd
02 May
Millwall
2 : 0 Oxford Utd
18 Apr
Derby
1 : 0 Oxford Utd
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coventry | 46 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 97:45 | 95 |
| 2 | Ipswich | 46 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 80:47 | 84 |
| 3 | Millwall | 46 | 24 | 11 | 11 | 64:49 | 83 |
| 4 | Southampton | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 82:56 | 80 |
| 5 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 72:47 | 80 |
| 6 | Hull City | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 70:66 | 73 |
| 7 | Wrexham | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69:65 | 71 |
| 8 | Derby | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 67:59 | 69 |
| 9 | Norwich | 46 | 19 | 8 | 19 | 63:56 | 65 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 57:56 | 64 |
| 11 | Swansea | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 57:59 | 64 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 59:59 | 62 |
| 13 | Sheffield Utd | 46 | 18 | 6 | 22 | 66:66 | 60 |
| 14 | Preston | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 55:62 | 60 |
| 15 | QPR | 46 | 16 | 10 | 20 | 61:73 | 58 |
| 16 | Watford | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 53:65 | 57 |
| 17 | Stoke City | 46 | 15 | 10 | 21 | 51:56 | 55 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 46 | 14 | 13 | 19 | 49:64 | 55 |
| 19 | Charlton | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 44:58 | 53 |
| 20 | Blackburn | 46 | 13 | 13 | 20 | 42:56 | 52 |
| 21 | West Brom | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 48:58 | 51 |
| 22 | Oxford Utd | 46 | 11 | 14 | 21 | 45:59 | 47 |
| 23 | Leicester | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 58:68 | 46 |
| 24 | Sheffield Wed | 46 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 29:89 | 0 |
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - League One (Main)
