Sport Picks
Derby vs Stoke City - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
England
Championship Pride Park, Derby 
AI Match Summary
Derby host Stoke City in the Championship. Little to choose between these two on current form. Derby have averaged 1.25 scored and 1.39 conceded recently, against Stoke City's 1.29 scored and 1.54 conceded. Past meetings favor Derby slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 6, 2026, ending 2:0. xG projections (1.19 - 1.63) back Derby to edge this. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Derby have managed 1.25 goals a game lately — Stoke City are scoring more at 1.29.
- Model gives Stoke City a 61% chance of winning this.
- Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Derby | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 10 | 10 |
| Draws | 4 | 5 |
| Losses | 14 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.25 | 1.29 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.39 | 1.54 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Derby found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).
Stoke City has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.
These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.
Solid form: Derby remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Recent Form & Match History
Derby
(Home)Stoke City
(Away)League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15:7 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17:12 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 23:12 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 15:13 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolves | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15:11 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11:8 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 13:11 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16:15 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10:9 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12:13 | 14 |
| 11 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 8:11 | 13 |
| 12 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 13 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12:11 | 12 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10:13 | 11 |
| 15 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7:11 | 11 |
| 16 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19:10 | 10 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12:17 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 17:19 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:10 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7:14 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11:14 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13:17 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8:15 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8:16 | 4 |
