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Derby vs West Brom - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

Championship Pride Park, Derby
Our Tip

Match Events

10'
Whitwell H.
16' Event
Heggebo A.
Assist: Morgan J.
26'
Pereira B.

AI Match Summary

The Championship game between Derby and West Brom finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward West Brom.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

6%
Derby
30%
Draws
64%
West Brom
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: West Brom

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Derby haven't matched West Brom's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans West Brom's way, sitting at 90%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Derby Clean Sheet 16%
West Brom Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Derby West Brom
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 16
Draws 5 8
Losses 17 5
Goals Scored 1.1 1.76
Goals Conceded 1.72 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2026 Championship
Derby vs West Brom
0:1
Jan 23, 2026 Championship
Derby vs West Brom
1:1
Sep 13, 2025 Championship
West Brom vs Derby
0:1
Aug 12, 2025 EFL Cup
West Brom vs Derby
1:2
Apr 21, 2025 Championship
West Brom vs Derby
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Derby Compare

Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

West Brom Compare

Top Goalscorer Heggebo A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Derby 10 / 100
West Brom 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Derby West Brom

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick West Brom Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Derby scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

West Brom has conceded goals in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Solid form: Derby remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Derby VS West Brom
0.75 Goals Scored 1.13
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Derby

(Home)
03 Nov
Derby
0 : 4
Norwich
31 Oct
Millwall
4 : 1
Derby
24 Oct
Sheffield Utd
1 : 1
Derby
17 Oct
Derby
0 : 1
Stoke City
14 Oct
QPR
4 : 1
Derby
Page 1 of 6

West Brom

(Away)
03 Nov
West Brom
1 : 1
Southampton
31 Oct
West Ham
1 : 3
West Brom
24 Oct
Preston
1 : 1
West Brom
17 Oct
West Brom
3 : 2
Blackburn
13 Oct
Wrexham
1 : 2
West Brom
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Middlesbrough 14 8 4 2 30:19 28
2 Wolves 14 8 3 3 25:17 27
3 Birmingham 14 7 5 2 26:13 26
4 Stoke City 14 8 2 4 22:17 26
5 Swansea 14 8 2 4 21:16 26
6 West Brom 14 7 4 3 20:15 25
7 Southampton 14 8 4 2 29:14 24
8 West Ham 14 6 5 3 36:21 23
9 Sheffield Utd 14 6 4 4 20:17 22
10 Portsmouth 14 6 4 4 19:16 22
11 QPR 14 5 6 3 22:17 21
12 Norwich 14 6 0 8 27:24 18
13 Millwall 14 5 3 6 23:24 18
14 Blackburn 14 5 3 6 20:22 18
15 Bristol City 14 5 3 6 16:19 18
16 Wrexham 14 4 5 5 17:19 17
17 Bolton 14 5 2 7 19:26 17
18 Cardiff 14 3 6 5 22:23 15
19 Lincoln City 14 4 3 7 14:24 15
20 Watford 14 4 2 8 13:23 14
21 Charlton 14 3 5 6 11:22 14
22 Burnley 14 1 7 6 18:26 10
23 Derby 14 1 4 9 11:29 7
24 Preston 14 1 2 11 12:30 5
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)