Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Derby vs West Brom

England England

Championship Pride Park, Derby
Our Tip

Match Events

10'
Whitwell H.
16' Event
Heggebo A.
Assist: Morgan J.
26'
Pereira B.

AI Match Summary

The Championship game between Derby and West Brom finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward West Brom.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Derby
20%
Draws
58%
West Brom
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: West Brom

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Derby haven't matched West Brom's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans West Brom's way, sitting at 50%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Derby Clean Sheet 10%
West Brom Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Derby West Brom
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 13
Draws 2 10
Losses 16 6
Goals Scored 1.28 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.48 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2026 Championship
Derby vs West Brom
0:1
Jan 23, 2026 Championship
Derby vs West Brom
1:1
Sep 13, 2025 Championship
West Brom vs Derby
0:1
Aug 12, 2025 EFL Cup
West Brom vs Derby
1:2
Apr 21, 2025 Championship
West Brom vs Derby
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Derby Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

West Brom Compare

Top Goalscorer Heggebo A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Derby 22 / 100
West Brom 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Derby West Brom

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick West Brom Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Derby scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

West Brom let in goals in 59% of their last 29 matches.

Solid form: Derby remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Derby VS West Brom
0.88 Goals Scored 2
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Derby

(Home)
12 Sept
Derby
1 : 2
Birmingham
09 Sept
Derby
0 : 1
West Brom
05 Sept
West Ham
3 : 0
Derby
01 Sept
Portsmouth
0 : 2
Derby
29 Aug
Derby
0 : 3
Swansea
Page 1 of 6

West Brom

(Away)
12 Sept
West Brom
1 : 1
QPR
09 Sept
Derby
0 : 1
West Brom
05 Sept
West Brom
1 : 0
Watford
02 Sept
West Brom
1 : 1
Charlton
29 Aug
Middlesbrough
3 : 1
West Brom
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 West Ham 7 4 2 1 20:9 14
2 Swansea 7 4 2 1 11:5 14
3 Middlesbrough 7 4 2 1 14:10 14
4 West Brom 7 4 2 1 10:7 14
5 QPR 7 3 3 1 8:5 12
6 Charlton 7 3 3 1 6:7 12
7 Wolves 6 3 2 1 14:10 11
8 Lincoln City 7 3 2 2 6:6 11
9 Southampton 7 4 2 1 18:8 10
10 Birmingham 7 2 4 1 10:9 10
11 Millwall 7 3 1 3 13:13 10
12 Stoke City 7 3 1 3 11:11 10
13 Bristol City 7 3 1 3 10:12 10
14 Norwich 7 3 0 4 13:13 9
15 Sheffield Utd 7 2 3 2 8:9 9
16 Blackburn 7 2 2 3 10:10 8
17 Watford 7 2 2 3 7:9 8
18 Portsmouth 6 2 1 3 7:8 7
19 Wrexham 7 1 4 2 7:11 7
20 Bolton 7 2 1 4 7:12 7
21 Cardiff 7 0 4 3 7:11 4
22 Derby 7 1 1 5 6:13 4
23 Preston 7 1 0 6 6:13 3
24 Burnley 7 0 3 4 8:16 3
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)