Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Derry City vs CSKA Sofia

Europe Europe

Europa League The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium
Thu, Jul 16, 2026
VS
05:30 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

No Data

No live events recorded yet.

AI Match Summary

Derry City host CSKA Sofia in the Europa League. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. CSKA Sofia have shipped 1.25 goals a game lately, while Derry City have conceded 1 and scored 1.38. Head-to-head, Derry City have won 0 to CSKA Sofia's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Aug 6, 2009, ending 1:1. xG projections (1.31 - 0.81) back CSKA Sofia to edge this. CSKA Sofia in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Derry City
39%
Draws
31%
CSKA Sofia
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • CSKA Sofia has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Derry City.
  • Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 39% draw probability.
  • Cup tournament structure in Europa League increases high-stakes performance focus.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Derry City Clean Sheet 20%
CSKA Sofia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Derry City CSKA Sofia
Matches Played 28 26
Wins 8 17
Draws 11 3
Losses 9 6
Goals Scored 1.38 0.63
Goals Conceded 1 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 6, 2009 Europa League
Derry City vs CSKA Sofia
1:1
Jul 30, 2009 Europa League
CSKA Sofia vs Derry City
1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Derry City 31 / 100
CSKA Sofia 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Derry City CSKA Sofia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DER Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Derry City scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

CSKA Sofia let in goals in 54% of their last 26 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Derry City went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

CSKA Sofia lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Derry City VS CSKA Sofia
1.38 Goals Scored 0.63
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Hammarby-
TBD-
TBD-
Anderlecht-
Qarabag Agdam-
Vestri-
CSKA Sofia-
Derry City-
Tromso-
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Hradec Kralove-
Twente-
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Vojvodina-
Ferencvaros-
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Midtjylland-
Hajduk Split-
Zilina-
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Pafos-
Sheriff Tiraspol-
Aluminij-
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Maccabi Tel Aviv-
St. Gallen-
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Quarter-finals
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