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Stadium Background

Derry City vs Dundalk - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ireland Ireland

FAI Cup The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry
Derry City Logo

Derry City

4 - 2
FT
Dundalk Logo

Dundalk

Our Tip

Match Events

9'
McDaid D.
12' Event
Tracey S.
23' Event
McClean P.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 4-2. The second leg ended 4-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Derry City
20%
Draws
23%
Dundalk
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Derry City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Derry City come out ahead of Dundalk on wins alone.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Derry City taking it.
  • Derry City have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Derry City, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79%
Derry City Clean Sheet 15%
Dundalk Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Derry City Dundalk
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 10
Draws 9 7
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.55 1.73
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 23, 2026 Premier Division
Derry City vs Dundalk
2:1
Sep 6, 2026 FAI Cup
Derry City vs Dundalk
4:2
May 29, 2026 Premier Division
Dundalk vs Derry City
2:1
Apr 10, 2026 Premier Division
Dundalk vs Derry City
2:2
Feb 13, 2026 Premier Division
Derry City vs Dundalk
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Derry City Compare

Top Goalscorer McClean P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Duffy M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.09

Dundalk Compare

Top Goalscorer Tracey S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gaxha L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Derry City 84 / 100
Dundalk 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Derry City Dundalk

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Derry City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Derry City scored in 81% of their last 31 outings.

Dundalk's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Derry City went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Derry City VS Dundalk
2 Goals Scored 1.38
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.38
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Derry City

(Home)
08 Nov
Derry City
1 : 0
Waterford
30 Oct
Sligo Rovers
2 : 2
Derry City
23 Oct
Derry City
2 : 1
Dundalk
19 Oct
Derry City
1 : 0
St. Patricks
16 Oct
Drogheda
2 : 0
Derry City
Page 1 of 7

Dundalk

(Away)
30 Oct
Dundalk
3 : 1
Shamrock Rovers
23 Oct
Derry City
2 : 1
Dundalk
17 Oct
Sligo Rovers
1 : 1
Dundalk
02 Oct
Dundalk
1 : 2
Bohemians
18 Sept
Dundalk
2 : 3
Shelbourne
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
St. Patricks -
TBD -
TBD -
Wexford -
Shamrock Rovers -
TBD -
TBD -
Cork City -
Liffey Wanderers 1
Ringmahon Rangers 2
TBD -
Bohemians -
Baldoyle Utd. 2
Leicester Celtic AFC 0
TBD -
Longford -
Waterford -
TBD -
TBD -
Cobh Ramblers -
Athlone -
TBD -
Midleton 2
Mayfield Utd 0
St. Michaels 1
Janesboro 3
TBD -
Sligo Rovers -
Kerry -
TBD -
TBD -
Shelbourne -
Bangor Celtic 4
River Valley Rangers 1
College Corinthians 2
Killester Donnycarney 1
Drogheda -
TBD -
Lucan Utd 5
University College Cork 2
Galway United -
TBD -
Crumlin Utd 4
Salthill 0
Finn Harps -
TBD -
TBD -
Bray -
Treaty United -
TBD -
TBD -
UC Dublin -
Derry City -
TBD -
Fairview Rangers 0
Tolka 3
Wayside Celtic 3
St Mochta's 4
TBD -
Dundalk -
Douglas Hall 1
Fanad United 0
Castlebar Celtic 3
North End United 0
1/16-finals
St. Patricks 2
Wexford 1
Shamrock Rovers 4
Cork City 1
Ringmahon Rangers -
Bohemians -
Baldoyle Utd. 0
Longford 8
Waterford 2
Cobh Ramblers 1
Athlone 3
Midleton 0
Janesboro 0
Sligo Rovers 4
Kerry 3
Shelbourne 2
Bangor Celtic 4
College Corinthians 5
Drogheda 4
Lucan Utd 0
Galway United 4
Crumlin Utd 0
Finn Harps 0
Bray 1
Treaty United 1
UC Dublin 2
Derry City 3
Tolka 0
St Mochta's 1
Dundalk 3
Douglas Hall 0
Castlebar Celtic 1
1/8-finals
St. Patricks 3
Shamrock Rovers 2
Bohemians 4
Longford 0
Waterford 2
Athlone 1
Sligo Rovers 4
Kerry 0
College Corinthians 0
Drogheda 3
Galway United 2
Bray 1
UC Dublin 1
Derry City 2
Dundalk 8
Castlebar Celtic 0
Quarter-finals
St. Patricks 1
Bohemians 2
Waterford 3
Sligo Rovers 0
Drogheda 1
Galway United 2
Derry City 4
Dundalk 2
Semi-finals
Bohemians 0
Waterford 2
Galway United 0
Derry City 2
Final
Waterford 0
Derry City 1