Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Derry City vs St. Patricks - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ireland Ireland

Premier Division The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry
Our Tip

Match Events

21'
Burns D.
46'
Sub
Lyons-Foster B. In: Barr C.
Out: Lyons-Foster B.
53'
Olusanya A.

AI Match Summary

The Premier Division game between Derry City and St. Patricks finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Derry City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Derry City
20%
Draws
23%
St. Patricks
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Derry City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and St. Patricks come out ahead of Derry City on wins alone.
  • Derry City are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Regular Premier Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Derry City Clean Sheet 19%
St. Patricks Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Derry City St. Patricks
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 13
Draws 8 7
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.53 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 19, 2026 Premier Division
Derry City vs St. Patricks
1:0
Aug 2, 2026 Premier Division
St. Patricks vs Derry City
1:1
May 22, 2026 Premier Division
Derry City vs St. Patricks
0:0
Mar 16, 2026 Premier Division
St. Patricks vs Derry City
0:0
Aug 29, 2025 Premier Division
Derry City vs St. Patricks
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Derry City Compare

Top Goalscorer Santos K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

St. Patricks Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Derry City 36 / 100
St. Patricks 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Derry City St. Patricks

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Derry City found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).

St. Patricks let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Derry City went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Away concern: St. Patricks has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Derry City VS St. Patricks
1.75 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Derry City

(Home)
08 Nov
Derry City
1 : 0
Waterford
30 Oct
Sligo Rovers
2 : 2
Derry City
23 Oct
Derry City
2 : 1
Dundalk
19 Oct
Derry City
1 : 0
St. Patricks
16 Oct
Drogheda
2 : 0
Derry City
Page 1 of 6

St. Patricks

(Away)
30 Oct
St. Patricks
2 : 3
Bohemians
23 Oct
Galway United
0 : 0
St. Patricks
19 Oct
Derry City
1 : 0
St. Patricks
16 Oct
St. Patricks
1 : 2
Shelbourne
19 Sept
Sligo Rovers
0 : 1
St. Patricks
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shamrock Rovers 36 20 8 8 59:38 68
2 Bohemians 36 19 8 9 63:44 65
3 St. Patricks 36 17 9 10 55:31 60
4 Shelbourne 36 12 13 11 52:50 49
5 Derry City 36 11 15 10 50:47 48
6 Dundalk 36 11 12 13 55:59 45
7 Waterford 36 10 13 13 54:61 43
8 Galway United 36 10 12 14 46:53 42
9 Drogheda 36 10 10 16 44:57 40
10 Sligo Rovers 36 5 10 21 28:66 25
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1 2027 (Main)