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Stadium Background

Derry City vs Tolka Prediction & H2H Stats

Ireland Ireland

FAI Cup The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry
Derry City Logo

Derry City

3 - 0
FT
Tolka Logo

Tolka

Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
O'Reilly A.
83' Event
Chapman E.
90' Event
Chapman E.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-0. The second leg ended 3-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Derry City
20%
Draws
28%
Tolka
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Derry City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Derry City come out ahead of Tolka on wins alone.
  • 52% — that's where the model lands on Derry City taking it.
  • Derry City have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Derry City, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 82%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 82%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.8%
Derry City Clean Sheet 68%
Tolka Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Derry City Tolka
Matches Played 29 17
Wins 10 6
Draws 10 3
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 1.55 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.34 2.06
Expected Goals (xG) 2.50 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 19, 2026 FAI Cup
Derry City vs Tolka
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Derry City Compare

Top Goalscorer Chapman E.
2 Goals
Assists Leader O'Reilly A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.92
Avg xA / game 1.25

Tolka Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Derry City 95 / 100
Tolka 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Derry City Tolka

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Derry City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 4:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Derry City's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Tolka's defensive record shows goals conceded in 88% of 17 matches.

Recent resilience: Derry City stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Derry City VS Tolka
2 Goals Scored 0
1.63 Goals Conceded 3
100% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Derry City

(Home)
18 Sept
Derry City
1 : 0
Galway United
14 Sept
Waterford
2 : 2
Derry City
11 Sept
Shelbourne
0 : 1
Derry City
06 Sept
Derry City
4 : 2
Dundalk
30 Aug
Derry City
3 : 3
Shamrock Rovers
Page 1 of 6

Tolka

(Away)
19 Jul
Derry City
3 : 0
Tolka
16 May
Fairview Rangers
0 : 3
Tolka
18 Jul
Galway United
2 : 0
Tolka
18 May
Tolka
3 : 1
Janesboro
21 Aug
Tolka
0 : 4
Killester Donnycarney
Page 1 of 4

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
St. Patricks -
TBD -
TBD -
Wexford -
Shamrock Rovers -
TBD -
TBD -
Cork City -
Liffey Wanderers 1
Ringmahon Rangers 2
TBD -
Bohemians -
Baldoyle Utd. 2
Leicester Celtic AFC 0
TBD -
Longford -
Waterford -
TBD -
TBD -
Cobh Ramblers -
Athlone -
TBD -
Midleton 2
Mayfield Utd 0
St. Michaels 1
Janesboro 3
TBD -
Sligo Rovers -
Kerry -
TBD -
TBD -
Shelbourne -
Bangor Celtic 4
River Valley Rangers 1
College Corinthians 2
Killester Donnycarney 1
Drogheda -
TBD -
Lucan Utd 5
University College Cork 2
Galway United -
TBD -
Crumlin Utd 4
Salthill 0
Finn Harps -
TBD -
TBD -
Bray -
Treaty United -
TBD -
TBD -
UC Dublin -
Derry City -
TBD -
Fairview Rangers 0
Tolka 3
Wayside Celtic 3
St Mochta's 4
TBD -
Dundalk -
Douglas Hall 1
Fanad United 0
Castlebar Celtic 3
North End United 0
1/16-finals
St. Patricks 2
Wexford 1
Shamrock Rovers 4
Cork City 1
Ringmahon Rangers -
Bohemians -
Baldoyle Utd. 0
Longford 8
Waterford 2
Cobh Ramblers 1
Athlone 3
Midleton 0
Janesboro 0
Sligo Rovers 4
Kerry 3
Shelbourne 2
Bangor Celtic 4
College Corinthians 5
Drogheda 4
Lucan Utd 0
Galway United 4
Crumlin Utd 0
Finn Harps 0
Bray 1
Treaty United 1
UC Dublin 2
Derry City 3
Tolka 0
St Mochta's 1
Dundalk 3
Douglas Hall 0
Castlebar Celtic 1
1/8-finals
St. Patricks 3
Shamrock Rovers 2
Bohemians 4
Longford 0
Waterford 2
Athlone 1
Sligo Rovers 4
Kerry 0
College Corinthians 0
Drogheda 3
Galway United 2
Bray 1
UC Dublin 1
Derry City 2
Dundalk 8
Castlebar Celtic 0
Quarter-finals
St. Patricks 1
Bohemians 2
Waterford 3
Sligo Rovers 0
Drogheda 1
Galway United 2
Derry City 4
Dundalk 2
Semi-finals
Bohemians -
Waterford -
Galway United -
Derry City -
Final
TBD -
TBD -