Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Derry City vs Tolka

Ireland Ireland

FAI Cup The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry
Derry City Logo

Derry City

3 - 0
FT
Tolka Logo

Tolka

Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
O'Reilly A.
83' Event
Chapman E.
90' Event
Chapman E.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-0, with Derry City advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Derry City
40%
Draws
29%
Tolka
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Derry City come out ahead of Tolka on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Derry City have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Derry City, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Derry City Clean Sheet 19%
Tolka Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Derry City Tolka
Matches Played 28 16
Wins 7 6
Draws 11 3
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 1.13 1.5
Goals Conceded 1 0
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 19, 2026 FAI Cup
Derry City vs Tolka
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Derry City Compare

Top Goalscorer Chapman E.
2 Goals
Assists Leader O'Reilly A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Tolka Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Derry City 32 / 100
Tolka 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Derry City Tolka

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tolka's defensive record shows goals conceded in 88% of 16 matches.

Derry City's goal record stands at 75% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Derry City went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Derry City VS Tolka
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Derry City

(Home)
16 Jul
Derry City
1 : 2
CSKA Sofia
09 Jul
CSKA Sofia
3 : 2
Derry City
03 Jul
Derry City
2 : 4
Waterford
26 Jun
Derry City
2 : 0
Drogheda
22 Jun
Shamrock Rovers
1 : 1
Derry City
Page 1 of 6

Tolka

(Away)
16 May
Fairview Rangers
0 : 3
Tolka
18 Jul
Galway United
2 : 0
Tolka
18 May
Tolka
3 : 1
Janesboro
21 Aug
Tolka
0 : 4
Killester Donnycarney
29 May
Tolka
2 : 1
Waterford
Page 1 of 4

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
TBD-
TBD-
Crumlin Utd4
Salthill0
Douglas Hall1
Fanad United0
Castlebar Celtic3
North End United0
TBD-
TBD-
Lucan Utd5
University College Cork2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Liffey Wanderers1
Ringmahon Rangers2
TBD-
TBD-
Baldoyle Utd.2
Leicester Celtic AFC0
TBD-
TBD-
St. Patricks-
TBD-
TBD-
Wexford-
Waterford-
TBD-
TBD-
Cobh Ramblers-
Bangor Celtic4
River Valley Rangers1
College Corinthians2
Killester Donnycarney1
St. Michaels1
Janesboro3
TBD-
Sligo Rovers-
Athlone-
TBD-
Midleton2
Mayfield Utd0
Wayside Celtic3
St Mochta's4
TBD-
Dundalk-
Derry City-
TBD-
Fairview Rangers0
Tolka3
Shamrock Rovers-
TBD-
TBD-
Cork City-
Treaty United-
TBD-
TBD-
UC Dublin-
Kerry-
TBD-
TBD-
Shelbourne-
1/16-finals
Galway United4
Crumlin Utd0
Douglas Hall0
Castlebar Celtic1
Drogheda4
Lucan Utd0
Finn Harps0
Bray1
Ringmahon Rangers-
Bohemians-
Baldoyle Utd.0
Longford8
St. Patricks2
Wexford1
Waterford2
Cobh Ramblers1
Bangor Celtic4
College Corinthians5
Janesboro0
Sligo Rovers4
Athlone3
Midleton0
St Mochta's1
Dundalk3
Derry City-
Tolka-
Shamrock Rovers4
Cork City1
Treaty United1
UC Dublin2
Kerry3
Shelbourne2
1/8-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Quarter-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Semi-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Final
TBD-
TBD-