Sport Picks
Derry City vs Waterford - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Ireland
FAI Cup Aviva Stadium, Dublin 
Match Events
50'
50'
Long K.
69'
69'
Burns D.
75'
75'
Sub
Voilas J. In: McMenamy D.
Out: Voilas J.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 1-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
45%
15%
40%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Derry City
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Derry City haven't matched Waterford's recent run of results.
- Win probability leans Derry City's way, sitting at 36%.
- Waterford arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Derry City, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Derry City Clean Sheet 15%
Waterford Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Derry City | Waterford |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 12 | 14 |
| Draws | 8 | 9 |
| Losses | 10 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.53 | 1.83 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.3 | 1.37 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Nov 8, 2026 FAI Cup
Derry City vs Waterford
1:0
Sep 14, 2026 Premier Division
Waterford vs Derry City
2:2
Jul 3, 2026 Premier Division
Derry City vs Waterford
2:4
May 15, 2026 Premier Division
Waterford vs Derry City
2:2
Feb 27, 2026 Premier Division
Derry City vs Waterford
4:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Derry City Compare
Top Goalscorer Burns D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Waterford Compare
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Derry City 35 / 100
Waterford 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Derry City Waterford
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Derry City scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.
These sides typically produce 4.20 goals when they meet.
Waterford let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.
Derry City has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Derry City VS Waterford
1.75 Goals Scored 2
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Derry City
(Home) 08 Nov
Derry City
1 : 0 Waterford
30 Oct
Sligo Rovers
2 : 2 Derry City
23 Oct
Derry City
2 : 1 Dundalk
19 Oct
Derry City
1 : 0 St. Patricks
16 Oct
Drogheda
2 : 0 Derry City
Page 1 of 6
08 Nov
Derry City
1 : 0 Waterford
23 Oct
Derry City
2 : 1 Dundalk
19 Oct
Derry City
1 : 0 St. Patricks
18 Sept
Derry City
1 : 0 Galway United
06 Sept
Derry City
4 : 2 Dundalk
Page 1 of 3
Waterford
(Away) 08 Nov
Derry City
1 : 0 Waterford
30 Oct
Shelbourne
2 : 3 Waterford
23 Oct
Waterford
3 : 1 Drogheda
19 Oct
Waterford
3 : 2 Galway United
16 Oct
Bohemians
2 : 1 Waterford
Page 1 of 6
08 Nov
Derry City
1 : 0 Waterford
30 Oct
Shelbourne
2 : 3 Waterford
16 Oct
Bohemians
2 : 1 Waterford
09 Oct
Bohemians
0 : 2 Waterford
18 Sept
Shamrock Rovers
3 : 2 Waterford
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
St. Patricks -
TBD -
TBD -
Wexford -
Shamrock Rovers -
TBD -
TBD -
Cork City -
Liffey Wanderers 1
Ringmahon Rangers 2
TBD -
Bohemians -
Baldoyle Utd. 2
Leicester Celtic AFC 0
TBD -
Longford -
Waterford -
TBD -
TBD -
Cobh Ramblers -
Athlone -
TBD -
Midleton 2
Mayfield Utd 0
St. Michaels 1
Janesboro 3
TBD -
Sligo Rovers -
Kerry -
TBD -
TBD -
Shelbourne -
Bangor Celtic 4
River Valley Rangers 1
College Corinthians 2
Killester Donnycarney 1
Drogheda -
TBD -
Lucan Utd 5
University College Cork 2
Galway United -
TBD -
Crumlin Utd 4
Salthill 0
Finn Harps -
TBD -
TBD -
Bray -
Treaty United -
TBD -
TBD -
UC Dublin -
Derry City -
TBD -
Fairview Rangers 0
Tolka 3
Wayside Celtic 3
St Mochta's 4
TBD -
Dundalk -
Douglas Hall 1
Fanad United 0
Castlebar Celtic 3
North End United 0
1/16-finals
St. Patricks 2
Wexford 1
Shamrock Rovers 4
Cork City 1
Ringmahon Rangers -
Bohemians -
Baldoyle Utd. 0
Longford 8
Waterford 2
Cobh Ramblers 1
Athlone 3
Midleton 0
Janesboro 0
Sligo Rovers 4
Kerry 3
Shelbourne 2
Bangor Celtic 4
College Corinthians 5
Drogheda 4
Lucan Utd 0
Galway United 4
Crumlin Utd 0
Finn Harps 0
Bray 1
Treaty United 1
UC Dublin 2
Derry City 3
Tolka 0
St Mochta's 1
Dundalk 3
Douglas Hall 0
Castlebar Celtic 1
1/8-finals
St. Patricks 3
Shamrock Rovers 2
Bohemians 4
Longford 0
Waterford 2
Athlone 1
Sligo Rovers 4
Kerry 0
College Corinthians 0
Drogheda 3
Galway United 2
Bray 1
UC Dublin 1
Derry City 2
Dundalk 8
Castlebar Celtic 0
Quarter-finals
St. Patricks 1
Bohemians 2
Waterford 3
Sligo Rovers 0
Drogheda 1
Galway United 2
Derry City 4
Dundalk 2
Semi-finals
Bohemians 0
Waterford 2
Galway United 0
Derry City 2
Final
Waterford 0
Derry City 1
