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Derthona FbC vs Castanese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

53' Event
Manasiev Z.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 game between Derthona FbC and Castanese finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Derthona FbC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Derthona FbC
40%
Draws
29%
Castanese
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Castanese haven't matched Derthona FbC's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Derthona FbC have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 27%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Derthona FbC Clean Sheet 20%
Castanese Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Derthona FbC Castanese
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 11 5
Draws 7 11
Losses 15 14
Goals Scored 0.88 0
Goals Conceded 1.38 0

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 14, 2023 Serie D - Group A
Derthona FbC vs Castanese
1:0
Mar 12, 2023 Serie D - Group A
Castanese vs Derthona FbC
1:0
Nov 6, 2022 Serie D - Group A
Derthona FbC vs Castanese
3:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Derthona FbC 32 / 100
Castanese 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Derthona FbC Castanese

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castanese let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Derthona FbC found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (33 games).

Historical meetings average 1.67 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Derthona FbC stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Derthona FbC VS -
0.88 Goals Scored 0
1.38 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Derthona FbC1
Castanese0