Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group B 2022/2023

Caronnese

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Desenzano Calvina play Caronnese in the Serie D - Group B 2022/2023. Desenzano Calvina are favorites here. Recently, Desenzano Calvina averaged 1.63 goals scored and 0.59 conceded. Caronnese averaged 0.7 goals scored and 1.93 conceded. In past meetings, Desenzano Calvina won 1, Caronnese won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 19, 2023 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.48 for Desenzano Calvina and 0.75 for Caronnese. This points to a Desenzano Calvina double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%

Desenzano Calvina

23%

Draws

13%

Caronnese

Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Desenzano Calvina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

94% / Very High Confidence

Desenzano Calvina picked up more points recently compared to Caronnese.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.48 vs 0.75 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 75%

Over 2.5 Goals 48%

Over 3.5 Goals 29%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39%

Desenzano Calvina Clean Sheet 27%

Caronnese Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Desenzano Calvina	Caronnese
Matches Played	32	30
Wins	21	2
Draws	7	7
Losses	4	21
Goals Scored	1.63	0.7
Goals Conceded	0.59	1.93

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 19, 2023 Serie D - Group B

Desenzano Calvina vs Caronnese

Possession: 60% - 41% Cards: 1 - 1

3:0

Oct 16, 2022 Serie D - Group B

Caronnese vs Desenzano Calvina

Possession: 43% - 42% Cards: 2 - 2

2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Desenzano Calvina Compare

Top Goalscorer Bardelloni E.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Franzoni A.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.35

Avg xA / game 0.88

Caronnese Compare

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Desenzano Calvina 63 / 100

Caronnese 14 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Desenzano Calvina Caronnese

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Desenzano Calvina Win (1)

Secondary Pick Desenzano Calvina & Under 3.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +14.6%

1.79

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.2%

2.38

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Desenzano Calvina attacking → ← attacking Caronnese

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Desenzano Calvina scored in 78% of their last 32 games.

Caronnese let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Desenzano Calvina went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Caronnese lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

70 Points in last 5 13

1.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

0.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lumezzane	34	24	5	5	67:20	77
2	Alcione Milano	34	21	8	5	67:31	71
3	USD Casatese	34	16	11	7	38:26	59
4	Arconatese	34	16	9	9	54:37	57
5	Desenzano Calvina	34	15	8	11	47:41	53
6	Franciacorta	34	13	11	10	44:43	50
7	Ponte San Pietro	34	11	16	7	47:38	49
8	Ciserano-Bergamo	34	14	6	14	42:40	48
9	Brusaporto	34	12	11	11	43:38	47
10	Varesina	34	13	7	14	47:50	46
11	Villa Valle	34	9	14	11	40:47	41
12	Real Calepina	34	7	18	9	30:33	39
13	Folgore Caratese	34	10	9	15	37:46	39
14	Seregno Calcio	34	10	11	13	42:56	38
15	Breno	34	10	7	17	35:50	37
16	Varese FC	34	8	9	17	30:46	33
17	Sona	34	6	9	19	28:56	27
18	Caronnese	34	2	9	23	24:64	15