Sport Picks
Match Events
17'
17'
Baraye Y.
AI Match Summary
Desenzano Calvina in this Serie D - Group D matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Desenzano Calvina.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
90%
6%
4%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Desenzano Calvina
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Desenzano Calvina have won more games recently than Sasso Marconi.
- 90% — that's where the model lands on Desenzano Calvina taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- These two have met 5 times recently and Desenzano Calvina have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Desenzano Calvina Clean Sheet 68%
Sasso Marconi Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Desenzano Calvina | Sasso Marconi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 30 |
| Wins | 22 | 8 |
| Draws | 7 | 7 |
| Losses | 3 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.63 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.38 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.38 | 1.63 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 12, 2026 Serie D - Group D
Desenzano Calvina vs Sasso Marconi
1:0
Nov 30, 2025 Serie D - Group D
Sasso Marconi vs Desenzano Calvina
1:3
Apr 26, 2020 Serie D - Group D
Desenzano Calvina vs Sasso Marconi
0:0
Dec 15, 2019 Serie D - Group D
Sasso Marconi vs Desenzano Calvina
1:2
Mar 31, 2019 Serie D - Group D
Sasso Marconi vs Desenzano Calvina
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Desenzano Calvina Compare
Top Goalscorer Baraye Y.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Sasso Marconi Compare
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Desenzano Calvina 95 / 100
Sasso Marconi 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Desenzano Calvina Sasso Marconi
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick DES Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Desenzano Calvina scored in 81% of their last 32 outings.
Sasso Marconi let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.
Games between these two average 1.80 goals.
Recent resilience: Desenzano Calvina stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Desenzano Calvina VS Sasso Marconi
1.63 Goals Scored 1
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Desenzano Calvina
(Home) 31 May
Scafatese
1 : 0 Desenzano Calvina
24 May
Desenzano Calvina
1 : 1 Scafatese
17 May
Desenzano Calvina
0 : 1 Grosseto
10 May
Ostiamare
0 : 2 Desenzano Calvina
03 May
Sangiuliano City
0 : 5 Desenzano Calvina
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24 May
Desenzano Calvina
1 : 1 Scafatese
17 May
Desenzano Calvina
0 : 1 Grosseto
26 Apr
Desenzano Calvina
1 : 1 Pistoiese
12 Apr
Desenzano Calvina
1 : 0 Sasso Marconi
22 Mar
Desenzano Calvina
1 : 0 Cittadella Vis Modena
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Sasso Marconi
(Away) 10 May
Imolese
0 : 2 Sasso Marconi
03 May
SCD Progresso
4 : 1 Sasso Marconi
26 Apr
Sasso Marconi
1 : 1 Imolese
19 Apr
Sasso Marconi
2 : 1 Rovato Vertovese
12 Apr
Desenzano Calvina
1 : 0 Sasso Marconi
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10 May
Imolese
0 : 2 Sasso Marconi
03 May
SCD Progresso
4 : 1 Sasso Marconi
12 Apr
Desenzano Calvina
1 : 0 Sasso Marconi
29 Mar
Cittadella Vis Modena
2 : 0 Sasso Marconi
15 Mar
Tropical Coriano
1 : 1 Sasso Marconi
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Desenzano Calvina | 34 | 23 | 8 | 3 | 60:21 | 77 |
| 2 | Lentigione | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 51:23 | 73 |
| 3 | Pistoiese | 34 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 61:22 | 71 |
| 4 | Piacenza | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 60:35 | 64 |
| 5 | Pro Palazzolo | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 44:31 | 57 |
| 6 | Pro Sesto | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 45:30 | 55 |
| 7 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 35:29 | 55 |
| 8 | Rovato Vertovese | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 35:29 | 52 |
| 9 | Sangiuliano City | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 41:45 | 47 |
| 10 | SCD Progresso | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 38:42 | 39 |
| 11 | Sant'Angelo | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 38:51 | 39 |
| 12 | Correggese | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 35:36 | 39 |
| 13 | Crema | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 35:47 | 38 |
| 14 | Imolese | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 28:47 | 34 |
| 15 | Sasso Marconi | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 33:49 | 31 |
| 16 | Tropical Coriano | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 29:45 | 31 |
| 17 | Trevigliese | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31:62 | 23 |
| 18 | Tuttocuoio | 34 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 18:73 | 8 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group D (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group D (Play Out)