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Desenzano Calvina vs Scafatese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Gabbianelli G.
64' Event
Baldan M.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-1. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Desenzano Calvina
35%
Draws
35%
Scafatese
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Scafatese come out ahead of Desenzano Calvina on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Scafatese arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Desenzano Calvina Clean Sheet 20%
Scafatese Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Desenzano Calvina Scafatese
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 17 18
Draws 10 7
Losses 5 4
Goals Scored 1.25 2.1
Goals Conceded 0.66 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 31, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Scafatese vs Desenzano Calvina
1:0
May 24, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Desenzano Calvina vs Scafatese
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Desenzano Calvina Compare

Top Goalscorer Gabbianelli G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Scafatese Compare

Top Goalscorer Baldan M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Desenzano Calvina 32 / 100
Scafatese 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Desenzano Calvina Scafatese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Desenzano Calvina scored in 69% of their last 32 outings.

Defensive concern: Scafatese conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.50 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Desenzano Calvina remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Desenzano Calvina VS Scafatese
0.75 Goals Scored 1.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
38% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Desenzano Calvina

(Home)
26 Sept
Desenzano Calvina
0 : 0
Juventus U23
21 Sept
Treviso
0 : 0
Desenzano Calvina
17 Sept
Desenzano Calvina
1 : 3
Lecco
13 Sept
Arzignano
1 : 2
Desenzano Calvina
06 Sept
Union Brescia
1 : 0
Desenzano Calvina
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Scafatese

(Away)
19 Sept
Cosenza
1 : 1
Scafatese
15 Sept
Scafatese
0 : 0
Monopoli
12 Sept
Catania
1 : 2
Scafatese
06 Sept
Casertana
2 : 2
Scafatese
01 Sept
Campobasso
2 : 1
Scafatese
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Vado 3
Barletta 2
Desenzano Calvina 1
Scafatese 2
Final
Vado 0
Scafatese 6