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Desportiva Aracaju vs Falcon - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Copa Governo (Sergipe)
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AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-2. The second leg ended 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Desportiva Aracaju
20%
Draws
35%
Falcon
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Desportiva Aracaju

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Desportiva Aracaju come out ahead of Falcon on wins alone.
  • 45% — that's where the model lands on Desportiva Aracaju taking it.
  • Desportiva Aracaju have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 23.200000000000003%
Desportiva Aracaju Clean Sheet 68%
Falcon Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Desportiva Aracaju Falcon
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 17 14
Draws 5 3
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 1.83 1.06
Goals Conceded 0.87 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Copa Governo (Sergipe)
Falcon vs Desportiva Aracaju
0:2
Aug 23, 2026 Copa Governo (Sergipe)
Desportiva Aracaju vs Falcon
0:0
Aug 5, 2026 Copa Governo (Sergipe)
Falcon vs Desportiva Aracaju
2:0
Feb 14, 2026 Sergipano
Falcon vs Desportiva Aracaju
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Desportiva Aracaju 50 / 100
Falcon 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Desportiva Aracaju Falcon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Desportiva Aracaju Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Desportiva Aracaju went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Desportiva Aracaju scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Defensive concern: Falcon conceded in 58% of 31 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Desportiva Aracaju VS Falcon
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Desportiva Aracaju

(Home)
30 Aug
Falcon
0 : 2
Desportiva Aracaju
23 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
0 : 0
Falcon
19 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0
Lagarto
13 Aug
Guarany SE
0 : 1
Desportiva Aracaju
10 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0
Lagarto
Page 1 of 6

Falcon

(Away)
30 Aug
Falcon
0 : 2
Desportiva Aracaju
23 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
0 : 0
Falcon
18 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
Atletico Gloriense
13 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
America de Propria
08 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 1
Falcon
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Falcon 1
Atletico Gloriense 0
Desportiva Aracaju 2
Lagarto 0
Final
Falcon 0
Desportiva Aracaju 2